Page menu

Monday, February 14, 2022

Market Update 2/14/22 - Friday's Panic Sell-off - In Hindsight

 It was just after lunch, on Friday, when I noticed the market suddenly down 1.5%, and that swiftly took out support on the short term chart. 

This looked like algorithmic trading programs kicking in, on news that Russia might invade Ukraine. Of course this is old news, but the algos are programmed to scan breaking news reports for key words, so it may have been something as simple as the words "Russian, Ukraine, and invasion",  that triggered the selling. 

I have to wonder why the white-house waits until a Friday afternoon, during normal trading hours to drop this bombshell. Is this to help government Sach's bullish Oil contracts? I wouldn't be at all surprised.   

Anyhow, this constitutes more than a 1 day sell-off, and it has broken some charts, so I think you have to remain cautious. 

To be honest I'm long certain sectors, and short others, and I think once the market builds a base, we're going to be looking at a rally into February OPEX. 

$NDX - Watch for window dressing in big tech names to last into the end of the quarter.

Of course that's also going to lift the DOW, and we could still see 38k by spring. 

I would not be buying defense contractors, as WWIII has already been priced in 100x, over the past 30+ years. 

I also wouldn't be hoping for a breakout in Oil 

$WTIC - Texas Crude 

In fact I think once the word gets out that Tech is back in favor, you'll see energy dumped, and it will soon become obvious, why the Fed is all talk, and no action. 

When Oil is crushed, the inflation story will die. 

That's about all I got time for, and all I'm willing to reveal, for free. 

Have a great week! AA 

No comments:

Post a Comment