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Monday, February 28, 2022

Market Update Part 2 - Monday 2/28/22 - The Last Trading Day of the Month

 Market Update Part 2 - Monday 2/28/22 - The Last Trading Day of the Month

1. Always watch the calendar - and especially when you see heavy selling, every Monday - like clockwork - as we've seen over the past few months. The. "why.... ", and the "who" is selling, is explained in part 1 of this update, and the short version of that story is that government insiders continue to sell the Russia news, just a they did the covid news, for nearly 3 months now. 

2. The second reason, to watch the calendar, is that new money will be put to work at the end of this quarter, which starts tomorrow. I suppose we could see a little more weakness, ahead of Monday, March 7th, the first big trading day of the month, but as long as the $VIX remains contained, no worries.  

Oil snaps back as predicted 

This is great! Planning to sell the rip, and be careful buying the dips. 

Gold testing the $1900 level again. Be sure to see the Dow, priced in gold, chart I posed on Friday! Looks like the rigged Gold market is going down!   

Natural Gas also snapping back

Bloomberg is reporting that Oil is soaring as the Russian nuclear arsenal is placed on high alert. This false narrative is no doubt, just more fear porn, designed to try to confuse investors. Oil may retest the recent high, but it looks weak to me.    

Broader Market saved from disaster 

My short term (bullish), and long term (bearish) outlook hasn't changed, but I did notice something disturbing, on several long term chart views! 

The long term charts nearly broke, but the charts were quickly repaired. 

You can see this on the Dow chart I included in the weekly wrap-up. See the red line... 

The $TRAN which leads the DOW is back above the upper pattern line.... 

$COMPQ - NASDAQ - bounced off the top of the my upper channel line. That pink line is the stop-hunt, so this is what I would call a close call.  

$SPX - same thing as above. The stop hunt - seen in Pink - was bought. 

If these long term stops are taken out, and the $VIX starts running, make no mistake about it, all hell will break loose, but I think the powers that be want to spend more time building short positions, before trashing the market, like they did in '07 - '08. 

For now the market is going to remain trapped in the top of this range. 

Take Care, AA 

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