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Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Market Update 8/31/22 - The Easiest Trade In The World

 The Easiest Trade In The World 

No, not yesterday's energy short... but the next trade, I already have lined up, and ready to go. 

Update Yesterday - we saw more weakness in Europe, and that spilled over into US markets. 

As it turns out, it's the ECB, that global markets are worried about, but at some point all the bad news is priced in, and this morning we see Futures green, on more bad new out of Europe. 

This is how we know we're not really in a bear market. A market that ignores bad news is a bull market. 

 We saw a little shakeout below the 50 day moving average on the $SPX, but the $VIX looks like it's poised to sell off.  

Looks like the easiest trade in the world

1. Keep your eye on the $VIX 

2. Buy the breakout - back above the 50 day moving average - on the $SPX 

Maybe the market takes another day to build a base? Maybe we see several more days of weakness, and that's kind of hard to predict on such light volume.

 Keep your eye on other 50 day moving average targets, such as financials, because every sector needs to build a base, before we're off to the races again.  

Speaking of Financials 

 $XLF - Looks like a normal bullish correction. I've a;ready labeled this move wave"A", so I'd start buying the dips, and then look to start selling the rips, maybe around the next OPEX. Wave B's aren't easy to predict, but it may even retest the recent highs. Wave C will looks like a sharp correction, and then we should see the market rally into the midterms, as I've suspected all along. Rigged markets to help Joe Biden, and the rest of the corrupt deep state. 

I'm sure you've seen all the money managers who are all over the cable news talking about how great financials are! Of course nothing could be further from the truth, but it should be a good trade anyhow. $FAS in play 

Just before we saw the market roll over, I was worried that the selling might accelerate, but I think those worries can be put to rest. This little pullback isn't a wave 3, or the market would certainly be crashing. Well, it's not crashing, and that rules out a wave 3.  

Oil can continue to pull back, and if $90 doesn't hold, there's plenty of support around $85 - $86 on BRENT crude.... 

 Pump 'n' dump markets continue - first it was Semiconductors and Tech, and now Energy.

For example: $NINE down 11% in one day! Investors hosed 

Just for kicks and giggles, watch for the geniuses to come right back in and buy the dip, right around $3. Is this a, "meme stock", no it's the powers that be, driving this junk, and every other small cap...

 $NINE - st buy target - not suggesting you should buy this; just something to watch...   

Here's one worth watching in coming months 

$BP - no doubt also being run up by the crooked hedge funds 

Seeing a double dip coming to this market, as fossil fuels are banned.  

China fills the gap 

That was a monster trade with $YANG up 20% in only 3 days. 

I've mentioned on Twitter that some of my indicators aren't working too well, but I think some of that has to do with the low summer volume, combined with the return of volatility. 

For instance the $NYA50R - This just doesn't look right, when compared to historical movements. It actually looks like heavier than normal volume, over the past 2 months, so I'm not sure what to make of it. 


Could is be that, the powers that be, have found a way to manipulate this indicator, just as they do with everything else? 

It's just a matter of time when manipulation fails to hold the market up, but It's hard to imagine... after watching this play out since the crash of '08, and I'm not even sure the market can crash, at this point. 

Once the market falls a certain percentage it's going to be closed for the day, and no doubt they'll also close the banks if necessary. This is why it's important to keep some cash on hand, and some silver and gold as well, not to mention, a full pantry, and freezer. 

Of course, even after covid, 99% of the population is willfully unprepared. They'd rather just hope for the best than think about, the worst that can happen, and prepare for it. 

Even if you point to the fact that, "this is a SHTF moment in progress, and I've seen this coming for some time", they don't want to hear it. They'd rather stick their head in the sand.   

Take Care, AA 

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