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Monday, August 1, 2022

8/1/22 - Weekly Market Wrap-up, and a look ahead...

 First off: I added a gold update page, located in the upper (tab) menu, where I updated the gold trade, on Friday, so be sure to check that out. 

Wrapping up last week's action: The broader market rally continued into the last trading day of July, as expected, as the current administration, the US Treasury, and The Federal Reserve, all falsely claim that US "is not (technically) in a recession", and the financial fake news is complicit, as always.  

The news cycle has gone full blow clown car show! 

Not only are they lying about the recession, but they are also pushing a climate bill, that's supposedly going to raise taxes on corporations, lower prescription drug prices, and save Medicare, and more promises being  made, in order to help them in the midterms (election).

And don't think that I'm only picking on the Democrats here, because when you see most republicans quietly going along with this false narrative, you know they must be getting some really juicy pork out of the latest deal . Both parties seem to be perfectly happy with the way things are! They're both going to use another Trump run as a scapegoat, as they continue with business as usual.  

Technically not a Recession?

If anything this - lying about the recession - probably helps keep the AI from pricing in the headline news, and it keeps most the population in the dark.   

2 weeks ago, every news outlet was reporting that the market was selling off on "recession fears", and now something else is being reported entirely. They simply changed the news cycle.   

"You can fool some of the people some of the time", but can you fool Wall Street?   

Democratic hopes for a big spending bill are revived

"Sometimes the senate resembles a zombie film: you can never be sure that what is dead will stay that way. So it was with Democratic ambitions for climate-change legislation" 

Does anyone believe most spending is the answer to inflation, and the destruction of the planet? If you do.... I have a bridge in Chicago, I think you might be interested in!   

2. What about Pelozi's Asia tour? There must be a very good reason why the MSM won't report on exactly what that's about, but I have a feeling it has to do with revising the TPP deal.    

To Prevent 'Another' TPP, 100+ Groups Call for Transparent Negotiations on Indo-Pacific Trade Deal

Are folks finally realizing that the power structure will lie to your face, and steal from you in broad daylight, or will they just go along with the program as usual?    

This is truly the age of deception!  

3. The Reversal in the $USD/ $YEN. Was this a result of the threat of doing away with the Carried interest rule; the so called $YEN Carry Trade? 

Why isn't this being covered more, by the bought and paid for lame stream media?  

Private equity, hedge funds object to U.S. carried-interest tax hike proposal reuters 

And what about the fund managers, who are supposedly going to get a hair cut, on the end of the carried interest exemption?  Maybe that part of the bill gets whited out in the middle of the night!  

FOREX update: We finally saw a big reversal in the Dollar $YEN, which put my Forex trading account at a 25% Net gain, as the soon to be extinct $USD saw its biggest monthly loss against the yen in 2 years...  

Although I don't believe this is the final breaking point for the $USD, I have no doubt it's coming sooner, rather than later. The lying Fed, and US treasury, also know it, and this is why all they do is defend it, as they falsely claim that the US is not slipping into a double-dip recession.   

In case you missed my recent prediction on the turning point for gold, and the Forex market: 

Market Update 7/15/22 Currency Collapse Likely? Red Flags! Gold the next safety trade?

Just goes to show that I can accurately predict markets regardless of the news cycle. 


Getting back to the The Broader Market

In Thursday's update 
I pointed to a wave 5 (of C) target, and that was swiftly taken out. I'm also seeing what looks like an overshoot on the $SPY, so I'm calling a top right here. 

$SPY 60 min chart - Looks like wave "C" overshot, although it may only be the first leg up in a much larger wave C. 

Of course this is the first Monday of the month, so new money coming in should provide a little extra buoyancy to markets, as the smart money takes profits, and we're already seeing futures recover this morning. 

Part of the reason for Friday's overshoot, was the continued short squeeze in Energy stocks, but Friday's action looked a little weak to me, as oil quickly rolled over in the afternoon. 

How do I know Friday's action was another short squeeze? Because this is the trend we've seen over the past several OPEX dates, not even Natural Gas contracts, which also expired last week. 

Notice how Bloomberg came up with a bullish natural gas story to report on the exact date the August contracts expired? 

 Friday's market action was an easy read, but the average investor doesn't listen. 

See how my first tweet of the day - Friday morning - is met with a stupid comment 


 You see, I don't have to think the bears will remain trapped, when I see the $VIX slammed to a new recent low, at the opening bell, on another low volume Friday. I already know it, and predicted it, ahead of time. This hammering of the $VIX only confirmed the obvious.   

I'm sorry, but after 15 years of  tracking markets, I have zero patience for new traders who just don't get it. 

As I was saying... markets look toppy 

$MSFT seeing Microsoft at the top of a channel, as I tweeted on Friday. This is one of the tricks to calling a market top, is to chart the market leaders. 

I've called Microsoft a FAANG stock in the past, and it might as well be... MFAANG 

Without offering any more targets, the DOW can definitely go a little higher, as that index tends to lag

$NYSE - this chart shows my prediction for wave C. Whether it goes a little higher or not, makes no difference to me. 

Wrapping up last weeks gold trade 

The gold trade, was my big winner last week, with gold ending the week up 10%, and Jr miners up about the same. The $GDX did not perform very well, and part of the reason for that is that Newmont, and Barrick Gold were slammed, and those are the top two holdings in the $GDX. 

Newmont - this is the chart that helped be call the top on the $GDX back in April. Note the little triangle top.... 

Gold is on hold, as I explained on Friday.

Now that everyone seems to be bullish gold, and the short sellers are feeling the squeeze, I'm looking for a shakeout. Maybe I took profits too early, but I'm not going to leave +25% Net gains on the table, in this volatile market. Cha-ching! 


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