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Friday, July 15, 2022

Market Update 7/15/22 Currency Collapse Likely? Red Flags! Gold the next safety trade?

This market is really putting me though my paces, but it still can't seem to sell-off on light summer volume. I suppose there's still the slight possibility of a final shakeout today, which happens to be another Options Expiration Friday, but that's not a bet I would make on light summer volume! 

"Never sell a dull market"  

Every day we see market futures sold, the market gaps down, but by the end of the day the bears are left running for cover. So, regardless of how bearish the market may feel, it basically remains flat, day after day, as the $SPY continues to trade in a sideways range, as I pointed out earlier in the week. 

To update the short term futures chart, I blogged earlier in the week, we're trading into a down-turned triangle pattern, which is no doubt bullish, in the short term.  

$SPX futures point to a possible 3600 target, although a washout to 3595 would be even more bullish. 

I don't trade the $SPX. I have bigger fish to fry, trading several different sectors, spread across 3 accounts, some long bets, some shor bets, and sitting on 30% cash in one of my accounts, after taking a massive 30% profit in $BOIL, as I tweeted yesterday.

 I really have my hands full trading several sectors at once, and have little time left for blogging, and I could spend hours offering free technical analysis, but most traders are going to trade what they like, not what is working. 

I think we're going to continue to see mixed markets, so you gotta be careful what you invest in. 

We've already seen China, and Biotech run, so we could see more profit taking there, but I think biotech is more likely to bounce going into today's (pre) rigged Options Expiration date.    

Speaking of Biotech; Novavax investors are taken out behind the woodshed! 

Speaking of China

China's economy records slowest growth since the start of 2020 CNN Business 

Where does the smart money go next? A couple of places I think, but you can bet the dumb money is still buying the dips in technology stocks. 

Currency Collapse Likely?    

I think we could see some violent moves in currency markets, which can spill over into the equities markets, but I think things could be a little bit different this time. While everyone is worried about last months inflation number, the $USD continues to soar to new 14 year highs? This makes absolutely no sense! Also we've already seen commodities, and oil crushed, so the fear inflation is over done. 

2. We also see the Euro at new recent lows

3. $YEN trading at new highs 

4. Gold trading at new recent lows 

Not to mention all the geopolitical risk. 

1. Trump claims he's going to run again. 

2. Boris Johnson's government collapses 

3. Brexit is falling apart

4. Italian government is falling 

5. Sri Lanka 

Gold Slides to 9-Month Low as Investors Turn to Dollar as Haven Bloomberg

When the US dollar, or any number of other currencies, including the Chinese $YUAN, collapses, where is the real safety trade going to be found? Not in Bitcoin, but in gold! Let's face it, you can't hold a piece of bitcoin in your hand!    

Disclaimer: I'm not an investment advisor, but as I've blogged in the past; everyone should own some gold, or at least some Silver, and as a market timer I can advise you that the best time to add to your vault, is on pullback!  

I like Gold as a trade, but when it comes to owning physical gold, I don't recommend owning gold bullion!   

"Gold bullion is not a safe investment", because it can be confiscated, just as it was in 1933, when Executive Order 6102 made it a criminal offense for U.S. citizens to own, or trade gold anywhere in the world, with exceptions for some jewelry and collector's coins - multiple sources  

That's right, Gold coins were excluded from confiscation! 

My father got me interested in coin collecting at an early age, so I remember when we went off the gold standard. This was during the 70's, when we saw similar inflation, and tumultuous markets, and "history has a way of repeating itself"! 

I may make a small commission on  purchases made using Amazon affiliate links on this website, but I believe these deals are just too hot to pass up. 

First I want to give you some guidelines for purchasing collectible coins: 

1. "Collect coins you find beautiful". This is advice my father gave me, and it stuck, so you won't find me recommending coins that I don't find very desirable from an aesthetic aspect. 

2. Always check for condition, or you could be hoodwinked into buying junk. Coins in the best condition, command the most money, but they also hold their value. "Buy the best and you'll never be disappointed"!  

3. Only collect coin which have:

a. Numismatic Value - This is what makes it a collectible. I has rare coin value. 

b.  High rare metal content - For example silves coins minted before 1965 are 90% silver, not clad 

c.  Face Value - this however doesn't apply to bullion coins, which have never been in circulation, because in reality these are not legal tender, and were never intended to be... 

4. Don't buy tokens, or medallions, which are not very collectible. Don't be hoodwinked!

5. Many collectors are not going to like this one, but don't invest in Silver, or Gold Eagles. These are considered bullion coins, and as bullion, they could be subject to confiscation!    

6. Always buy the best condition, you can afford. I recommend only purchasing "about uncirculated" grade, or better, but MS (mint state) 63-65 are even better!  

7. Find a dealer you can trust, and when purchasing on line, check the reviews. 

I prefer Peace Dollars to Morgan dollars 

I own both.... I just find the peace dollar more pleasing to the eye. 


2021 Peace Dollar Uncirculated US Mint

I believe Walking Liberty Silver Dollars are some of the most beautiful coins ever minted!  

1940-1945 U.S. Walking Liberty Silver Half Dollar Coin Half Dollar About Uncirculated Condition

1926 American Gold Saint Gaudens Double Eagle MS-66 PQ Approved by Mint State Gold $20 MS66 PCGS

To be honest I'm a little shocked by the lack of availability on Amazon, but I'll continue to search for more deals like this, in the future, and turn you on to them! 
Take Care, and GL, and be sure to follow me on Twitter, and YouTube! 

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