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Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Market Update 7/13/2022 - Market Being Walked Down to Support - Commodities Super Cycle & Gold

Touching on yesterday's update where we identified the bearish reversal in commodities: I assume everyone has heard about the so called, "commodities super-cycle", story repeated a million times by now, but do you know who invented that story? Goldman stated in October 2020 that commodities were beginning a supercycle that could last years and possibly a decade." Bloomberg   

That's right, non other than Jim Cramer's, old employer, Government Sachs, rigged the commodities market, and drove the false narrative!     

Market futures are green again: It seems weird to me that investors would continue to buy every dip, so I started looking at some charts, as well as at, who is reporting earnings this week.   

Delta reports today, and airlines have already rallying ahead of that. I was wrong on Airlines earlier in the year, but I would be a buyer again down here. A $99 donation to my personal papal, get's you all the charts you need; if you're looking for entry, and a months worth of target's, in that select sector. 

NYSE is trending up. I didn't notice this until this morning. The lower black line is a trend line, and the trend is technically up.  Not exactly support, as I put in the title of today's update, and I tend not to trust most of these black pattern lines, as I explain in my chart legend, located on one of the tabs, on the home page. 

I see other technicians who pretend to know what they're doing, calling these type of trend lines, support lines, but it's nothing more than a trend line. Here I am. calling out one of these dipshits'...   

Of course the heavily rigged $SPX index should generally follow the $NYSE, so let's take a look at that chart. 

$SPX - Looks like we could see a breakout - above the upper channel (in black) to 4000, if the pattern is true. Anything is possible I suppose, but if the lower pink line breaks, you should already know what to do, and have alternate trade, or a backup plan at least! The thing is, 90% of traders don't have a plan. They are only mentally prepared to trade the market they want, rather than the market they have. 

Think of this as a chess game. You should be thinking 5 moves ahead, not trying to make predictions.  

 Pink lines are also explained in the chart legend, and it's called a, "stop-hunt", for a reason. Because when that line breaks, every pro on Wall Street is going to know what to do, and stops are already set, and if the bottom drops out, we will be looking at the lower channel (in black), for the next buy target, somewhere below the 3500 area.  I think that's unlikely, but do you have a cash reserve, ready to be put to work, in such a scenario?  You should...!  

Be prepared to trade like a pro, and practice proper money management, and you'll be better than 90% of the other retail investors. 

I wish I could tell you which sector is going to lead a rally, but you're going to have to use a stock screener, or some other method, to figure that out. 

If on the other hand, the 3800 level breaks, and the $VIX continues to spike, then we're likely going to be looking at the 3700 level. For that target; see the blue parallel line, matching my upper (red) resistance line. Blue lines are usually parallel....  

As confusing as this update must be for some folks, this should carry us into Monday of next week, at least.  

One last thing: A parallel channel on the GOLD chart! 

Good luck, AA


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