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Sunday, July 17, 2022

Weekly Market wrap-up 7/16/22 SPY, China, Natural Gas, Energy, Financials, Gold Miners, $VIX

 First off, declaring victory on my short China trade, after taking a 37% profit in $YANG, on Friday!  

Add that to the 30% profit I took on leveraged Natural Gas Bull $BOIL, earlier in the week, and it turned out to be a pretty good week for me!  

And now you know I don't have much time for trading the $SPY, which ended about flat for the week. 

We did get a nice rally on Friday; "short squeeze Friday's", are very common in cyclical bear markets, so that was an easy call, but I can't say I'm as bullish as I was a couple weeks ago, and I think we're likely to see a little more weakness going forward. 

The $VIX ended Friday's session, sitting right on the 50 week moving average, and just above the 200 day ma. That's a red flag. 

A lower $VIX would be a bullish indicator, if there was some real news to go along with it, but by the looks of it, the $VIX was only hammered down in order to another rig yet another OPEX Friday. Not hard to do on light summer volume.  

I heard some idiot on FOX business report, that Friday's rally was due to, "a better than expected retail sales number", but retail didn't get much of a boost. Instead we saw money head into defensive Healthcare stocks.   

Retail is dead: And if this gaps down below the 55 level, you're going to see more panic selling 

We did see financials up 3.5% so that's a positive sign, but it looked to me like the $VIX was punched down for no other reason than to squeeze some retail short sellers. IF we see the $BKX continue to break out, this rally can continue, but I have bigger fish to fry. 

A look at the week ahead

 Oil price today: Biden to leave Saudi Arabia without energy update businessinsider

Bearish Energy Trade 

$DJUSEN - possible 529 shakeout target. There's no way to tell what target that is on the leveraged energy bear ($ERY), but I'd say $65.  

$ERY - if you're going to wait until Monday's open to make this trade, you're probably going to miss the boat, anyhow. 

Gold and Gold Miners 

I'm still thinking this could be the next big trade as  

Gold Set for Longest Run of Weekly Losses Since 2018 on Dollar (strength)

Gold tested the 1700 last week which looks like the bottom of a range, or possibly a double bottom (a little lower) around the 1675 level). 

The following chart proves just how silly last weeks coordinated (gold fear porn) headline is, and once again you see the lame stream media trying to scare the average retail investor.  

$Gold - while this was a swift move lower, gold has only traded back down to the lower end of the range, so ignore the bearish news reports, as usual. 

Reminder: I called the top on miners, back in April.   

$GDXJ (Jr miners) 

$DUST  is up nearly 200% since then. I'd be up 200% if I knew how to stick with a trade (that's working), but I'm still getting the hang of that. Of course this is a crowded trade now, and we could see momentum carry it a little further, but I think it's about time to start nibbling on $NUGT, and/or $JNUG! 

1. I really see no benefit trading the miners, over the jr miners, as they continue to move in lockstep.    
2. 10% - 20% swings in leveraged miner ETFs are common, so if you can't stomach those kinds of move, don't trade them. These can move 50% in a day, just like the Leveraged NatGas funds! 

I crave volatility, but buying into one of the many gold miner indexes, is a much safer bet, and will probably help you sleep during the night.       

$GDXJ - Here's the target I pointed out a couple weeks ago, so I've just been watching miners come to me. 

Let's take a look at the same chart updated - bingo! Yeah, could throw over further, and shake the weak hands. It could even retest a few more times, but reversals in miners tend to be swift, as you can see at every turn over the past couple years. With any luck we see a nice V bottom, and a short squeeze that continues into the end of the end of the summer! 

Gold is a tricky trade, but there is a case to me made for gold here! 

If you think gold is bearish, then go long the soon to be extinct $USD, or better yet, go double short gold! 

I figure why not put it all out there today, and you haven't even seen 10% of my gold charts. 

If I've helped you with your trade, then be sure to support this website, by making purchases through affiliate links, posted on this website, and making donations through my personal PayPay

Tips are appreciated, and be sure to spread the word to your family and friends. 

Gold is your hedge against soon to be extinct US dollar.   

I'm not talking about the Gold Trade here, I'm talking about physical gold, in the form of rare coinage. Be sure to check out my recent Market Update 7/15/22 Currency Collapse Likely? Red Flags! Gold the next safety trade? 

Beautiful rare collectible coins like the ones below, and the ones I mentioned in Friday's blog, sell themselves!    

1913 Indian Head Five Dollar PCGS MS-62

Gold weight .2419 Troy Ounces

1927 $20 Twenty Dollar Gold St. Gaudens MS65 PCGS

Actual Gold weight 33.436 grams

Silver coinage is also a great option for storing wealth. I'm a big fan of the standing liberty quarter, and this looks like a fine specimen!   

1924-D Standing Liberty Quarter MS64 PCGS


I'll continue to look for great deals, and point them out when I see them. I may even follow in my fathers footsteps and open my own coin shop, in the future! 

Catch you later, and GL, AA 

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