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Tuesday, July 12, 2022

Market Update 7/12/22 - A Glimpse Into The Future

I wasn't really sure what to call today's market update, but since part of market timing involves making predictions... or at least anticipating the markets next move, this seems appropriate. 

First off, I've been predicting that Oil, Commodities, and Energy, would crash, for some time, and that's why I took down most other charts in the public charts area. 

Of course commodities had to retest the highs a 3rd time, before they finally puked, but better late then never! 

Bloomberg Commodities Index - this is the same index Bloomberg has been pumping for over a year, as the smart money continued to sell their holdings to the retail investor.    

And when did the powers that be, decide to pull the rug out...? On light holiday volume, of course! 

I also thought the broader market may pull back last week, for the same reason (because they can), but it looks like weekly options expiration was fixed for the bulls, which actually worked out well for me, because it allowed me to get out of some long trades. 

You may recall in a recent blog - Market Update 4/13/2022  - I pointed out the fact that  Tom Keene - at Bloomberg - was seen talking up corn prices? I assumed this was to help push the official narrative, that Russia is to blame for inflation, but my main point was to tune out the cable news clown show. 

Corn Smashed, along with Wheat, Soybeans, and most everything else! 

This was way better trading than watching the $SPX try to build a base for weeks on end! 

Same could be said for China! 

Last week I let the cat out of the bag, when I tweeted a reply to the only person I follow, over at Bloomberg:

Today's news 

China Stocks Hit Fresh Turbulence, Casting Doubt Over Recent Rebound wsj 

 As far as anticipating the market's next move, it doesn't really get any better than this! 

The news is often, only the publishing of news, that's already known, and already priced in; this is why you need to be able to anticipate what comes next. 


As far as the broader market goes 

Pulling back, as predicted on Friday: 

I would expect the selling to continue into Bank Earnings, and possibly even longer, and since the ongoing trend has been for the bears to win on every Options Expiration Friday, for the past 2 months, I would think there's a good chance of a repeat on July 15th, 3 days from now. 

We have a lot of Banks reporting on Friday, so a lot depends on whether the downgraded expectations are priced in ahead of time.

As I have been telling folks on Twitter, we need to see relevant sectors lead a legitimate rally, not Biotech! Also watch market leaders, $SOX, and $TRAN.


I'm not even interested in trading financials, just looking for leadership...

My intermediate term outlook has not changed. 

For that see my latest video update  

Market Update July 6th - Bullish Bitcoin, and the Broader Market

, and ignore what Blackrock has been saying about NOT buying the dip. 

Take Care, AA 

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