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Thursday, August 11, 2022

Market Update August 8th, 2022 - Part 2 - Longer Term View + and update on $SOX

Continued from Part 1 of this extensive update 

Picking up where I left off about trying to time market tops...

Here's a bearish reversal I recently got right, as the $SOX trade, predictably began to unwind, no sooner than Nancy Pelosi touched down on US soil, after her little Asian semiconductor tour.  

8/3/2022 - mid-week - Update - The Real Reason for Pelosi's Asian Tour $SOX (Semiconductors) 

"Nancy Pelosi is one of the greatest market timers of our time, so good luck figuring that one out! (referring to timing the top on the semiconductor trade) Keep and eye on Nancy's itinerary..." 

Of course by the time this photo op - of Biden and Nancy congratulating eachother - on the signing of the, "Semiconductor Bill", hit news stands, $SOX was already getting crushed  

Image source Reuters article linked

As it turns out, Nancy's Husband is the trader in the family, as...  

Pelosi's Husband sells off up to $5 millions worth of chipmaker stock ahead of semiconductor bill vote the hill

Now comes the blow-back

Does anyone believe that China can't take Taiwan, and cut off our chip sector, like an EMP weapon would.... and put us back in the dark ages?  These corrupt politicians, are playing with fire! 

With Pelosi Gone, China Circles Taiwan with Missiles (voa china news) 

The top on Semiconductors was swift, and that should send up red flags, considering that most tops take a lot of time to develop. Don't know if I'll have time to explain this, as the opening bell is about to ring in 15 minutes.  

Getting back to the broader market 

Here's one way the market can continue to hold up into August OPEX (options expiration) 

Of course the bears who follow me, don't like this chart, so there's a very good chance it's correct, and even if we do see a reversal like the one we saw in Semiconductors, it will most likely snap right back in a suckers rally, ending next week, above the 4000 level. The house always wins, and to think any differently is to set yourself up for leveraged loses in the Options Market.

Done! AA 


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