Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Looks like I may have been wrong about Gold

 Trading has been really dull, minus yesterday's washout in Natural Gas, and the rally in gold, and gold miners.  

It was back on Nov. 6th, I covered the gold pump -  as I watched it take place on Bloomberg & CNBC simultaneously - linked here

Gold was predictably bought in early November - at the 50 day moving average - but it wasn't until yesterday that we saw any unusual moves in gold. 

$GOLD - breaks out on light holiday volume 


I'm not really sure what to make of that move, but one important thing to note is that it didn't happen until after the Dec. contract expired. 

I also noticed some unusual looking breakouts on several beaten down gold miners, including names like Harmony Gold. 

$HMY -  Obviously manipulated, in order to squeeze some short sellers. 

I wanna say the usual boiler-room crew is driving this rally, and Fast Money seems to be on board with it, but I would have expected to see names like Rio up more, if that were the case.  

It seems to me that this gold rally wasn't well thought out, and is being performed by a bunch of amateurs. I do however think these gold stocks will hold up into weekly OPEX Friday.

It could actually be weeks before we see a reversal in Gold, and gold miners. Just look at how long the broader market takes to form a top - weeks! - and especially on such light holiday volume.      

One thing to watch is the 20 day moving average on the $GLD: 


Homework - chart several gold miners, including the most important one - Barrack Gold - and see if you notice any obvious patterns. 

The broader market: 

$SPX - seeing st support around the 4400 level.  



I expect to get back to more normal markets when traders return next week. 

Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving. 

Take care, AA |

PS I completed the new computer build over the weekend, and just in time to kill time playing some of the latest video games. 




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