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Thursday, December 8, 2022

My Thoughts on the current pullback continued

Picking up from where we left off yesterday, and to be honest... I'm way behind on charting, after only taking a couple days off....

 I've been busy painting, and wallpapering, and then yesterday I lost internet completely, for nearly 8 hours At least it was a good productive day, despite the fact that cut myself, not once, but twice, in 1 day. Looks like I'm going to be hanging paper with gloved hands, today. Ouch!  

To get you caught back up to speed: 

We went from extremely dull trading, to exciting trading in 1 day, and even though the lame stream media is calling this a "5 day sell-off", the market was hardly even down yesterday. The $SPX traded relatively flat, ending on a spinning top candle, which denotes indecision, and that's short term bullish.

$SPX (ES1) Futures - this morning we see the candle I just mentioned, followed by a bullish hammer, being painted at support. Blue lines (trend). 
Think we can't trade back to 4200, on light holiday volume? See yesterday's update, because I'm still accepting offers on steel bridges, in Chicago, and they're going fast! These deals won't last!  

For the time being, dull trading returns, but I'm pretty sure there will be fireworks, soon enough!

CNBC Fast Money Traders think the market is going lower, and Carter Worth apparently thinks the red trend line on his chart, can't be broken lol   

Anyone who's been charting as long as this doofus, should know:

1. Trend lines are made to be broken.  

2. Holiday trading is unpredictable 

3. Money managers are always forced to chase performance, going into the end of the 4th Quarter. 

Of course there are a lot of former high fliers on sale, so we may even see some bargain hunting, in beaten up tech, and semiconductors. 

As I tweeted yesterday Semi's are trading in the same range they've been trading in for several weeks now. 

Absent some catastrophic bad news, in the near future, we should close out 2022, like any other year. 

Short Term 

Someone on fast money (the show) was talking about how the market would probably remain directionless, ahead of the next FOMC announcement, and even a broken clock is right, 2 times per day, but I thought that was some pretty good analysis of the current situation. 

Tomorrow - Friday Morning 

8:30 amProducer price index final demandNov.

11 amNY Fed 1-year inflation expectationsNov.--5.9%
11 amNY Fed 5-year inflation expectationsNov.--2.4%


8:30 amConsumer price indexNov.--0.4%
8:30 amCore CPINov.--0.3%
8:30 amCPI (year-on-year)Nov.--7.8%
8:30 amCore CPI (year-on-year)Nov.--6.3%
8:30 amCPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate)Nov.--1.4%

8:30 amImport price indexNov.---0.2%
2 pmFederal funds rate announcement--3.75%-4.00%
2 pmSEP median federal funds rate for end of 2023--4.50%-4.75%
2:30 pmFed Chair Jerome Powell news conference

Take Care, AA 

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