Page menu

Friday, October 6, 2023

Market setup ahead of the Friday jobs number $SPX #Oil #NatGas

 After watching the market take 5-6 weeks to pull back a little, I think we're setting up for a countertrend rally. 

I think the $SPX could rally to resistance @ 4339, and as high as 4444 - 4450..! 

The market is looking for a weak jobs number - which would confirm that the fed is done hiking rates - and what the market wants, the market usually gets. I'm expecting a phony number.  

There's always the chance of another strong employment number, which would be used as an excuse to take out the 200 day moving average, which - in the end - would actually be more bullish. 

Monday is Columbus day, and that's a banking holiday, and that probably explains why I've never seen the market sell off on Columbus day. 

I can tell you which chart pattern to watch. 

$SPX - trades into a downturned triangle.  

I recently did a tutorial on triangle patterns, but I'm not sure this fits into any of the patterns I identified. Triangle patterns can be tricky! 

$SPX futures have traded into the same pattern, but seem to have already broken out. Not sure what to make of that. 


Oil - looks like it's building a base, and I think after the big moves we've seen, there's a good chance it's going to remain stuck in a range for a while.  

I covered the rest of my energy shorts yesterday, but now I have my sights set on Natural Gas, which broke out in a strange way yesterday. 

$UNG - US Natural Gas - I can't show you my best Natural Gas charts, but I can show you where the breakout occurred. This looked hoaky to me. 

I'm thinking this is another bull trap, just as the breakout in oil was, but time will tell.  

I have several other sectors I'm watching. More on that next week. 

Have a great weekend, 

Take Care, 


No comments:

Post a Comment