After watching the market take 5-6 weeks to pull back a little, I think we're setting up for a countertrend rally.
I think the $SPX could rally to resistance @ 4339, and as high as 4444 - 4450..!
The market is looking for a weak jobs number - which would confirm that the fed is done hiking rates - and what the market wants, the market usually gets. I'm expecting a phony number.
There's always the chance of another strong employment number, which would be used as an excuse to take out the 200 day moving average, which - in the end - would actually be more bullish.
Monday is Columbus day, and that's a banking holiday, and that probably explains why I've never seen the market sell off on Columbus day.
I can tell you which chart pattern to watch.
$SPX - trades into a downturned triangle.
$SPX futures have traded into the same pattern, but seem to have already broken out. Not sure what to make of that.
Tweeted
Kind of looks like $SPX market futures are breaking out, ahead of the phony jobs number. #Jobs #JobsNumber #JobsReport https://t.co/a8JrAPO9YH
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 6, 2023
Oil - looks like it's building a base, and I think after the big moves we've seen, there's a good chance it's going to remain stuck in a range for a while.
I covered the rest of my energy shorts yesterday, but now I have my sights set on Natural Gas, which broke out in a strange way yesterday.
$UNG - US Natural Gas - I can't show you my best Natural Gas charts, but I can show you where the breakout occurred. This looked hoaky to me.
I'm thinking this is another bull trap, just as the breakout in oil was, but time will tell.
I have several other sectors I'm watching. More on that next week.
Have a great weekend,
Take Care,
AA
No comments:
Post a Comment