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Monday, September 13, 2021

Market Update 9/13/21 - This is too easy

 Looks like I got it right again. It's not that difficult when futures are up every day, and the $VIX remains contained. 

Going into Friday's close the $VIX was seen being pressed just above 20, in order to spook some psudo traders out of their positions. Same thing we saw last week. $SPX 4500 once again being taken out. No change really, except for the $VIX being manipulated (just) above 20. 

Another thing that's changed is the fake news being reported over at CNBC - Worldwide Exchange. They are claiming that there was a "sell-off", last week, and that this morning futures somehow point to a turn-around (?), when they know damn well, that is a bs narrative. Rather than count the days, do the math, and stop trying to make the court jester James Cramer look smart. See: 

The six reasons why Jim Cramer is concerned about the stock market in September

Amazingly Cramer is looking for another "brutal" week this week, but unless the trend can be broken, or the moving averages taken out on higher volume, the bears had best keep their party hats in the closet. A 1% pullback, over a 5 day period, in Sept., round number targets on the $SPX, and DOW, and $VIX 20 means nothing. 


Bloomberg had a brilliant guest on this morning - Christopher Verrone - Partner/Head:Technical Analysis, Strategas Research Partners. 

My father always told me to choose mentors who are smarter than you, and this guy fits the bill! 

Christopher Verrone got bullish Gold in May of 2016, just ahead of the bullish reversal, and today he's cautious on the QQQ's, because of the massive inflows he's seeing. He knows that bull markets, that are over 2 years old, don't normally continue to move in a straight line, so there is bound to be a correction this year. He's not downright bearish as long as rates don't rise, and he also recognizes that less than 50% of $SPX stocks are bullish (up). That's something we call breadth, or market participation, which is one of the critical sentiment indicators I measure, and I can confirm it has been downright lousy, since even May-June of last year, where the number of stocks reaching new highs peaked out, along with bullish sentiment. Normally what you see from there is a correction, and then you see bearish sentiment peak out, but it's just taking a little longer this time. I refuse to reveal those indicators (charts), to folks who refuse to help support the cause.   

DOW - DCS chart - Trend remains up. Breakout target 35.1. Short squeeze target - now - +$36k - (nice round number). 

Timelines are tough, but I suspect we'll see the upside target taken  out by the end of the week. 

I think big tech needs to hold up into the end of the week, as well, since a sell-off there would hurt the DOW rally. DOW contains big tech names; Microsoft. Cisco, $IBM, INTEL and others.  

By the way, Intel was the bullish chart I revealed at Friday's open, but even though it was up 2% at one point during the day, it failed to break out. If you're trading this name and need help, then make a donation to this blog, and let me know in my twitter feed. 



Another stock to watch is Amazon! 

$AMZN - trading into a right shoulder, in a classic bearish H&S pattern. 

We need to see Amazon take out my right shoulder target. 

Here's another stock to watch, or trade this week - new IPO Weber. 

$WEBR Weber - could be a good Sept. Options trade. 


Oil up. 

Natural Gas is not up, and yes I'm short, as I revealed in my twitter feed...and I only reveal this position because I believe the hedge funds have no ability to hijack (rig) the natural gas market. 

Opening bell just rang, so I'm outta time. 



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