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Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/15/2021 - Did I cover my China short too soon? New NatGas target. And are we still on track for a big rally?

 I've been giving most everything I have away - on twitter - recently, so today's update is going to contain a lot of what I'v been churning out there. I'm also going to reveal something I haven't tweeted, the DOW pro-short !  

First off: The powers that be (the controllers) have a tight grip on this market. Of course the bears - I follow on twitter - can't see it, but I'm sure they will, soon enough.    

As I tweeted to a new twitter follower, yesterday:

What's relevant about that chart is that the $VIX is obviously being controlled, and as long as that continues, the bears don't have a chance....  

You don't even need a $SPX chart to know what happens next. 

If we do see another little washout, then I would be a seller on any breakout  - of the $VIX above the 200 day, and the magic (20) number, and a buyer off the 50 day moving average on the $SPX. Pretty simple, unless the shakeout comes at the end of the day, but in that case, I would be on another short squeeze Friday.   

China - did I cover my short too soon?  

I was short China for over a week, and up quite nicely in $YANG, but when I see the machines buying the 20 day moving averages, I get nervous. Most people would say there's nothing wrong with taking profits, but it's hard enough sticking with a winning trade, without that kind of chatter.  

It's uncanny how many things I noticed being bought at the 20 day moving average yesterday, even the $NDX! 

 

Natural Gas 

$UNG (Natural Gas fund) - another twitter follower pointed out to me that this has rallied to the 200 week, or month, moving average, which in the past I would've said isn't really significant, because ETF's aren't indexes, but I appreciate the heads up because the market is full of ignorant fools, who run hedge funds, and knowing that I don't doubt this is the target! It took me years to realize, ETF's are bing used to drive underlying indexes, so you really need  to watch everything, and be open to different interpretations! Back in the day, I would've just blocked someone pointing to a moving average on an ETF. 

$UNG - sure enough is taking out the 50 month, and at the top of a parallel channel. Could see a little throw-over past that target, and we are seeing a higher high in pre-market!  The target at my red line looks like 19.95 - $20 maybe? 

  



Looked like it took out my target yesterday, but commodities overshoot all the time 


Energy and specifically Natural Gas scares me here. See this Natural Gas name testing the top of the range. 

$SO - Southern 

Even a better short than Natural Gas; Lithium

Lithium - massive overshoot at the top of a parallel channel. Of course you need to sell Lithium contracts in order to play it, and that's too risky for most traders.


Now, here's something I didn't give away on Twitter: 

There's a DOW pro (long) ETF, with the ticker symbol $UDOW and I think that might be the best way to catch thye rally on the DOW, that I've been predicting for the past week! I almost went long the Russell at yesterday's close, but I still prefer the DOW, since it's lagging so much, and because big tech drives the dow, and we see Microsoft buybacks, and new Apple products, designed to lift the FAANGs. Of course the corporates are in on it!  After all we are living in a corporatocracy.

In a related story Joe Biden to pressure CEO's to force vaccine mandates. This is some of the most corrupt - in broad daylight - behavior I've seen come out of the White House, since Benghazi Gate. 

Biden to reportedly meet Wednesday with execs on COVID vaccine mandate - nypost

Weber washes out to a new low. This is what you want to see at a reversal, capitulation! 


 But I digress, and now I'm almost out of time. 

$UDOW - no doubt the DOW has been pulling back after this hit resistance. Remember what I was just saying about leveraged ETF's being used to drive indices? This would be a prime example of this. I thought this would be easier to chart, but not so much... 



I would also be watching the 50 day moving average on the DOW, and this black lower pattern line. To be honest this makes me a little nervous, but let the $VIX be your guide. Review a previous blog for $VIX targets. Low $VIX = no fear. 



GL, AA 




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