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Thursday, September 23, 2021

Market Update 9/23/21 - Waiting on the BOE decision

I often find myself racing the clock, to finish these blogs, ahead of each mornings opening bell, and yesterday was no different. I was going to recommend a stock screener, and had half a page written, but had to save that for another day. I've also been having some health issues, and doing some research on possible causes. I don't just run to the doctor, for fad vaccines, or anything else, and this isn't covid related. I had a mild case of the covid, and got over it very quickly.  

Picking up where we left off yesterday:

Waiting to see what comes from the BOE decision, and if the Fed is already talking about tapering in Nov, then Inflation may be a real issue overseas.  

Getting back to analyzing Monday's sell-off

Monday's sell-off began with the rug being pulled out on the German $DAX, when the opening bid was lowered, below the 50 day moving average, so let's take a look there first.  

Wait! Remember I was warning on Australia, Just last week?

$AORD Australia (weekly view) -See where the chart broke down - at my red line - and the price action is now sitting on my upper pattern line. The market overshot the top of the pattern, which is typical in wave 5. We've already seen a bounce off that level at the low of the week - 7474.10, and this can continue to hold above that level, until the PTB decide to pull the rug out again. In fact I can almost guarantee it.  

Why are we watching Australia? Because every major collapse is a global event, and because China has been backed into a corner, and Australia is ground zero.  

$GRDOW (Greece). 20 year bear market, and counting? Of course the lame stream media knows better than to even talk about it. When was the last time you heard the acronym PIIGS? That's called lying by omission, or a cover-up; take your pick.  

Getting back to Germany 

$DAX - rallies back above resistance - seen at my red line. That becomes support, and you should know that, without me telling you....  It's currently trading at 15,600.
I think we can expect to see a back-test of the 50 day moving average, as well as well as the formation of a right shoulder. Of course this is going to take some time, possibly as long as early-mid Oct, and Oct Options Expiration comes early, on the 15th. Perfect!  

Pretty amazing isn't it, how you can time the market using the calendar? I saw an advertisement for a trading program - on youtube -  that guarantees profits, based on buying certain dates, and I don't doubt that it works. If I ever get around to writing a trading book, I'll definitely be including a chapter on it. 

 This mornings futures 

Futures are out of kilter with normal trading, and I haven't pulled up a futures chart. 

Futures are up 20, but seem to be lagging at 4400 (of course another even number target). 

$SPX - already tested the 4400 level in trading on Wed, with resistance @ the 4420 level, and more resistance @ 4435.46 ( a gap fill target), and the 50 day moving average trading at 4436!  

Of course the market can continue to melt up, but I'm anticipating a pullback, at some point, at least. 

$SPX - DCS chart - Updated 

 I can't micromanage the intraday trade in this format, so follow me on twitter, when we see the market melt down again. 

Take Care, AA 


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