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Friday, October 22, 2021

Market Update 10/22/2021 - Looks like this rally can continue

Looks like this rally can continue 

 Probably not the headline you were expecting, but with only minutes before yesterday's closing bell, I realized that there's a strong possibility that the $VIX is about to break (lower). This is why you should always check my twitter page, and especially the pinned tweet (thread) for the latest updates.   


It seems everyone is still bearish, and that's usually a contrarian indicator. 

The market can hear no bearish news - fake or not - whatsoever, so trade the market you have, not the one you feel you want. 

 Remember everyone was bearish last month, when I was calling for a 1000 point rally on the DOW, and now that we've seen exactly that, the perma-bears remain bearish. At least Morgan Stanley has tones down their rhetoric, after eating crow.  

I was talking about the traders on Fast Money yesterday, and how they were all bearish, and one of them even mentioned that the $VIX was trading at 15, and that this is somehow a bearish signal? I may not have as much experience as most those FM traders, but I can tell you with complete confidence that, that $VIX 15 doesn't even come close to registering market complacency. 

The $VIX

$VIX  - (10 min chart) the trend is lower. This is going to be one of those moments, where you're going to have to trade the market you have, not the one you want. IF the $VIX breaks out of it's death spiral, then you're going to see the market correct, but if the trend on the $VIX continues, it can continue right into the end of the year, or a $VIX that trades in the 12's - whichever comes first. 

Public Charts Update 

Trying to keep the Public charts organized and up to date, has already cause me undue stress, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to take most the charts down. Even trading something like Energy requires comparing at least half a dozen different charts, and it's just too much work.... Energy broke the st trend yesterday, by the way. Maybe Energy tanks, and that eases inflation worries? That could cause metals to reverse as well as Bonds. When deflation returns, there will be no reason to raise rates, or even taper....    

I'll leave some long term chart views up, which seldom require updating, but other charts have already started coming down. I'll try not to pull them all down at once. 

I added a super-long-term view of the $BANK index yesterday:

$BANK - Trades on the NASDAQ and probably holds a lot of fintech. . It has been leading....  5000 is a huge psychological target! Could break out, from here, pullback, or only consolidate (slightly lower). I'd expect the latter.  

I also added a currency chart; looks like a capitulation point for the Chinese currency, trading against the $YEN. Not sure what this means in the big picture, but could be something geopolitical, and Biden was just seen threatening military action against China.  

After Biden says US would defend Taiwan from attack, China says there's 'no room for compromise' (fox)

$YUAN/$YEN  - looks like capitulation 


$SNAP misses earning, and you would expect it to be down, but when you see the bid lowered to (just) below the 50 day moving average, you know it's pure manipulation, planned weeks in advance. The crooked banks probably know what's in the earnings report, before it's even filed. They only use the news as a catalyst to spook investors.

Random Charts 

$NFLX (NetFlix) rallies into the top of the same pattern it's been trading in for months. That's not bullis.        

China can go a couple points higher, as I tweeted yesterday, but I'm not seeing the evergrande story, helping China much. 

$EGRNF Evergrande 

Take Care, AA 

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