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Friday, October 29, 2021

Market Update 10/29/2021 - Dull trading continues


Dull (boring) market conditions continue, as the G 20 - globalists, meet in Rome, on this final day of trading for Oct. 2021. 

The G-20 Becomes the Showpiece for a Dysfunctional Global Order (Washington Post)  

Nothing good ever comes out of the G 20, but traders don't sell into it either. 

This morning we did see a little bear raid at the open, but that was quickly quashed. 

We were already seeing some weakness in Europe, supposedly because of the ECB's LaGarde's "halfhearted attempt to calm market's fears of coming rate hikes"? I'm only repeating what is being reported by Bloomberg. This would be the equivalent of the market fighting the fed, which isn't very likely. I'm just going to chalk that up to fake news, and Europe being hammered down in order to manipulate US futures. 

So I really got sidetracked this morning, because first I had to check Europe, and currencies, and before I knew it, the opening bell was about to ring! 

I did spend some time checking the $EURO, because this is what traders are looking at, when they say the market is ignoring the ECB. 

$EURO - rallying to the 50 day ma, isn't bullish, it's bearish. 

Of Course the EURO/$GBP bounce out of the whole as expected, but even that remains trapped in the same range it's been trading in for months. You can find that chart in the public charts area. 

To make a long story short, I didn't find anything usual in Europe, and no impending currency crisis,   

Maybe interest rates are going to rise, despite anything the ECB, or the Fed does, and the market didn't want to price in higher rates until after the ECB statement? It's the market that sets interest rates, not the Fed, or the ECB. 

That reminds me; the Fed reports next week, and that means the market is likely going to hold up, going into next week. We may see that news sold, but I'd expect a relief rally, followed by a possible sell off the following day - Thursday the 4th, or some time soon after...   

A few things need to happen. 1. Fed Reports. 2. $VIX washes out to a new recent low. 3. SPX rallies above 4600. 4. DOW 36k. 5. $NDX 16000.

Of course I'd like to see a lot of call buying as these targets approach, and then see the rug pulled, just ahead of Nov. OPEX (options expiration). 

We'll have to see how it plays out next week. 

Natural Gas sold off below the 20 day moving average today, while $KOLD has pierced the upper channel slightly. 

NatGas also took out a key FIB target, and filled the gap that was left behind last week. It's become somewhat unpredictable, as it continues to chop sideways, but I'm leaning short term bullish, on this gap fill. The only thing that worries me, is that the market may be fixed, and the G20 is going to hammer it down, because this seems to be their answer to any market they don't like.    

One bright spot has been the bearish reversal in China, and I'm looking to take profits on that trade shortly, but trading in Oct. has generally sucked. China overshot. and took a week to reverse, and now we have to wait for another topping process. 

$YANG (China Bear)


Good Luck, AA  


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