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Friday, January 21, 2022

Market Update 1/21/22 - Best Trade Of The Year!

Best Trade Of The Year!

In case you missed it I took profits in my NatGas (short) trade yesterday. This was a sightly better trade than even the suckers rally I caught in $SOXS earlier in the month, and marks my best trade of the year, and it's still only Jan.! 

Of course I caught a falling knife in tech, and I'm down in my energy shorts, but as a whole, I'm up for the year, and that's a heck of a lot better than the perma-bulls can say. 

Am I bullish Natural Gas now? No, but anytime you find yourself up 25% in a day, or even in 1, or 2 weeks, I suggest that in most cases - 9 times out of 10 - you should take profits! Besides, I saw how the opening bid on $KOLD was jacked above the 50 day moving averaged in order to help take Nat Gas down, and I don't expect that kind of manipulation to last. Thing in terms of bullish and bearish sets you up for failure. Don't trade on feelings. 

I called yesterday's bearish reversal ahead of the close, using the $TSX Canada chart. What kind of investor thinks Canada is going to avoid the contagion....  

$TSX - Canada - 10 min chart breaks 

Look, when you see panic in Bitcoin, and tech, not to mention the UK, then you can expect everything to be sold. We ever see Gold futures down this morning, as the idiots in charge, continue to push for a war with Russia!  

That reminds me; we need to check on Germany, as the $DAX continues to be used to manipulate US futures markets. I'm not going to show a chart, but if the $DAX cracks the 50 week moving average, the next stop is nearly 1000 points lower.

For right now, we're still not seeing much panic, except in Crypos, and Netflix, of all things.  

Netflix looks interesting around this 425 level, but only for a dead cat bounce back to the $500 level. There are much better trades than this! 

Tech  - If you're interested in finding the bottom in tech, see the target I laid out on the #NASDAQ yesterday, and see my $VIX target, near the end of this update.  

Let's look at the DOW

$INDU -  Continues to trade in the same pattern we've been watching since May, 2021, and still on track to make another all time high, before - May - selling season. 

Remember the DOW lags, so it's highly unlikely that we've seen the top in the broader market, including tech. 

I still suspect this is going to be another short lived pullback. The controllers like to get these shakeouts done in a hurry, as we saw during the 1 month long (so called) "covid crash". Which was nothing more than a blip on the radar, as hard as the fake news tries to paint it as a recession, in need of more stimulus. As I've said all along, covid was/ is being used as an excuse to pump the ponzi market economy, and pull the wool over investors eyes. This won't end well, but probably won't end anytime soon. Even global collapses take some time to gather steam, so we should have plenty of warning.    

Maybe there's a 1% chance the contagion leads to a crash, today?

If you're looking to reduce your risk, wait until the the NASDAQ $VIX  - the $VXN -  is hammered back down below the 30.24 level. If it get's above that level you're going to stop out of big tech. When it gets back below 30 you're going to hold. When it drops back below 27.25, and plummets, you're going to add....    

Take Care, AA 


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