In case you missed it, I was charting the 15 min. $SPX chart live (seen below) at yesterday's opening bell, just like the good old days, but I'm afraid a lot of folks who follow me don't even know where to find the public charts area. You can find the link in the side menu, on this page, or the one in my twitter description. You can also find up to the minute live updates attached to my pinned tweet, on the main twitter page.
The action was pretty uneventful, even though the lame stream media continues to report "wild swings". The truth is there aren't many wild swings during normal trading hours, only in futures markets. The market can gap down 4% at the open, but you seldom see it sell off 4% during normal trading hours.
$SPX - Expecting a little pullback - ahead of the fed - even though we see the market riggers - once again - holding futures above the 4400 level, this morning.
From there, I'm seeing a 5 wave move, complete with a test of the 4600 (4635) level, followed by yet another Monday morning shakeout. Of course this 15 min chart, could be wiped out, in 5 min., with the volatility trading at $VIX 30, so it's more important to watch the longer term charts, and we'll get to some important ones to watch.... in a moment.
Firstly
I tried watching some CNBC after yesterday's close, and I can't believe how dumb, the commentary was, and the sound engineers now feel it's necessary to insert silly sound effects, on everything! Of course they've done this on every network, and even NFL football sounds like a starwars soundtrack. Fox news uses a lot of cymbal crash sound effects, which personally drive me up a wall.
Another thing the networks and their commercial advertisers have done - ever since the George Floyd - psyop - is to try to become radically, "inclusive". Even FOX news has a regular token black dude on the show, and so many commercials include mixed race (bi-racial) couples, it's become quite comical... It's too the point where I can't even watch much TV anymore, unless the sound is off. This is a good thing! And it's not that I have anything against, black people, and especially when they're qualified... it's just insulting to ones intelligence to have political agendas shoved down my throat every day, but I digress.
So getting back to clueless hacks on CNBC - after the bell - pointing to Microsoft futures down 4%, and with it, NASDAQ futures... it seems they were all suffering from a bad case of amnesia, as the NASDAQ is only retesting the lows we saw on Monday. The alternative is that the traders on the show, are only hoping that Microsoft get's clobbered, so that they can pick it up on the cheap.
Look, these money managers who continue to bash tech, when these are some of the same people who drove it into the stratosphere, all-the-while using "covid", as an excuse....; they will now be forced to chase it.... and before you know it, they'll all be talking up tech stocks again.
I also watched 5 min. of Cramer, and I actually think Cramer get's it right, when he points out that NetFlix earnings has caused the baby to be thrown out with the bath water (paraphrasing).
Watching the fake news you would think that tech just fell out of favor, but did you know that FAANG stocks actually topped out in early November?
Getting back to the charts:
$NYFANG - as in FAANG - See the broadening top pattern? One of my favorites!
Res. 6750
$NFLX - Netflix - another broadening top. Another top called... :)
Looking at the DOW, because the DOW needs to top out last, not lousy tech stocks.
$INDU - the pattern on the DOW should look very familiar! I don't know if we've seen the top or if this can make another false breakout. It's a complicated, and hard to predict broadening triangle pattern, or broadening top.
NEXT I want to compare the above DOW chart with the European STOXX 50 chart below.
$STOXX50 - google it - study this chart, and you'll get a better idea of how markets are trading in the current environment. Pay close attention to the moving averages! It's easy to see, why the market crashed as it did, and the rebound target will be a bearish) back-test of the 50/ 200 day moving averages. I'm not even going to attempt to make a prediction, on what happens after that, or try to put an Elliott Wave cycle on it.
One more thing:
A crash is coming, but probably not until everyone is bullish again, and we're a long ways from there.
Oil, and energy will lead the declines as usual, so again, we're not even close to being there yet...
Take Care, AA
P.S. I'll be updating the 15 live chart after the open, and again, after the fed announcement.
ssss
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