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Thursday, March 16, 2023

Is this Financial Collapse, the beginning of something much bigger? Oil, NatGas, Credit Suisse, First Republic Bank, Treasuries, Gold

 Is this financial collapse, the beginning of something much bigger? 

I love the market volatility; this is great trading, but not so good for investing. 

 Big market moves help reset the charts, which means targets come back into play, unlike the lousy sideways action we were seeing only a few weeks ago. Again, good for technical trading, but panic can feed on itself. Think of it as a negative feedback loop. This can end in forced selling, and we're beginning to see spill-over into different sectors.    

Volatility is one thing; financial collapse would be entirely another, and at some point it could even become un-tradable. Short term, I think the market is oversold, and that sets up for a short term rally, but then what? 

Like I tweeted yesterday: 

I also confirmed the bearish reversal in Europe, something I've been predicting for a while now, and part of the reason I went Net short, ahead of the collapse 

As I said on Feb. 24th:  

Until Europe corrects then I'm going to remain cautious  

Also said:  Maybe hedging with a materials sector short might be a good idea. 

Have you seen the materials sector lately?! 

I'm not saying this is '08 all over again, but it does have some similarities. For one, the financial sector is leading the losses, and without a health financial sector, what is safe? We see many traders running to the safety of gold. Even CNBC Fast Money was seen encouraging retail to invest in Gold. 

@3Xtraders

 

 If it is the beginning, of something bigger, then it could even far surpass what we saw in '08. 

I still believe they (the controllers - the money printers) are not going to allow the market to collapse on Joe Biden's watch. Not unless it's in order to do the, "great reset", the one - as I'm sure you know - they've been planning for a while now, and even talking openly about. World Economic Forum: The Great Reset  

 Just look at how tech continues to hold up, just as it did during the covid crash. These people believe that AI, and mass surveillance is the answer to all their problems, and that is all going to require a massive amount of technological infrastructure.    

The Great Reset AKA the AI Takeover may not be what you think 



Getting back to current market conditions 

Just as we saw during the financial collapse of  '08, there will be ferocious snap-back rallies, and any bears caught the wrong side of that trade, were totally wiped out in a day, only to miss out on the next sell off.  Timing is everything! 

Are the retail short sellers aware that First Republic Bank lost over 80% of it's value in 1 week?! That goes way beyond the condition, known as being, "short term, oversold", and we see it down 23% again this morning. 

Have the short sellers forgotten about the Plunge Protection Team? 

Re: Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse shares soar after central bank aid announced apnews.com


 Another Great Trade  

I'm talking about the trade I called out on Twitter, on March 2nd!

I think most traders wouldn't even know where to find the opposite side of that trade, but I can tell you that there is a 3X  Leveraged 7-10 year Treasury Bull ETF ($TYD), which  is up 20% since I made that call! Another perfect trade, documented. 



That's what's called taking the contrarian view on the typical crap you see retweeted on twitter every day, and winning. 

Add to that the swing trades I've recently made in Natural Gas, and my short positions in Oil, and the materials sector - which I called out a couple weeks ago, and I'm sure I'm doing at least as well as the short sellers of financial stocks did over the past few weeks. 

Natural Gas 



So, not what? 

Well, today the ECB is being pressured to pause - pivot - on policy, and even if they don't.... the worse may already be priced in, for the time being at least. 

ECB Preview: A 50 bps rate step could have a EUR-negative effect – Commerzbank fxstreet.com


OPEX is Friday, so I wouldn't be surprised to see most the Put protection that was put on over the past few days, expire worthless. 

This is a treacherous market to trade, unless you really know what you're doing. If you're still learning, I suggest you stay away from leverage all together, and reduce your exposure. 

Take Care, AA 

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