My most recent trade, has far surpassed, our previous, best trade of the year; by leaps and bounds!
I can hardly believe it myself, but seeing is believing:
From my most recent News Letter:
On March 1st, 2023 I made a bold call on the SPX (linked).
Using a 60 min. chart - I predicted that there would be a shakeout below the 200 day moving average, setting a target of 3850.
Here's the chart - copied & pasted - (from that update):
$SPX Before
Here's the same chart, after taking out the target, on Friday, March, 10th:
$SPX After
The most amazing thing to me, isn't that I was right on the call, but it's that I nailed the timeline so accurately. I didn't even have to doctor chart. Everything just fell into place, as predicted.
How did I do it.
Rather than bore you with a laundry list of technical indicators, and technique, which I've perfected over the years, I'm going to try to keep this simple.
The $VIX - something I've been sounding the warning on for the past few weeks, even before JP Morgan came out with their dire warnings of a volmageddon.20.
That's all documented in my blog from Feb. 18th, entitled
A Tale of Volmageddon - Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 - Preparing for Volmageddon 2.0 - Danger Signs Ahead?
Finding the pattern on the $SPX chart is one thing, but predicting a short squeeze on the $VIX, is quite another.
Everybody thinks they know something about where the market is going. From the traders on CNBC Fast Money, to the lead technician at Morgan Stanley, thinks they can use valuation as a guide... but as far as I know, nobody has ever predicted a market, using valuation. In my 15 years of trading I've never seen the pencil pushers, time a market accurately.
For example, did any of these geniuses predict that the valuation on the banking sector would come crashing down in a day. No, and that's because the market moves in geometric patterns, and according to Fibonacci, and half a dozen other ways, they don't teach, in business school.
I couldn't really tell you what they teach as far as technical analysis, in business school, but the charts I see the top analysts draw, are often vague (multi-year chart), and inaccurate, so I have to believe they focus more on valuation, and as I've already stated, and in the infamous words of Bullwinkle the Moose, "that never works".
Looking back at the market crash of the past 2 days
It was actually pretty limited in scope. In fact I think it hardly qualities as a crash, unless you're willing to look at the regional banks, which suddenly took out the Oct. lows, and even made 2 year lows....
Of course I saw financials peak out, but I didn't have the cash available to short every sector.
Of course I saw financials peak out, but I didn't have the cash available to short every sector.
I also saw the Russell 2000 top out, and that was another great call, and easier to predict than the financials, because the Russell has a corresponding $VIX, the $RVX.
Here I am predicting a Stock Market Crash on March 9th
$IWM/$RUT (Russell 2000) Before:
We could see the #StockMarket crash, according the #ElliottWave pattern, I'm seeing. #StockMarketCrash #Crypto #Russell2000 #ETF #Trading pic.twitter.com/Qecn1oyzYw
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 9, 2023
$IWM/$RUT (Russell 2000) After:
I declared victory on that call in my Twitter feed, but it was only met with the same type of stupidity, you typically see on Twitter.
Good. Let it burn.
— Emmanuel Ibus (@emmanuelibus) March 10, 2023
I think the only reason I continue to use twitter, is as a daily diary of sorts, and the same goes for this blog. It help keep me on track.
The Fake Financial News
Seeing the patterns in the charts is one thing, but tuning out the fake news, and social media, is another.
In the end, did the cable news programs see this banking collapse coming? Did Chairman Powell or anyone on the financial committee - 1 day before the crash - point to the risk these financial agencies pose? No.
And this is the main reason I don't trade in a group. I can't allow myself to be influenced by outside opinions, like the countless conflicting ones you hear on CNBC, and Bloomberg, or from 10k maniacs on Twitter, every day. Of course, I have to keep tabs on the media, but I only pat attention to 10% of it.
Then there's the trade
Accurately predicting a big move in the market is one thing. Trading is it another....
The patience, determination, and focus it takes, to get in and out of these trades on time, is a feat, and especially when is comes to trading a cash account!
This is the hardest part, but is gets easier after 15 years... and once I'm trading a leveraged account, I'll be well on my way to achieving what Bob Brinker calls "critical mass". A condition we would all like to achieve, when the earnings from your investments - or in this case trades - earn more, that you could ever make, working your day job.
The money is just an added benefit of what I do, but in the end it's just numbers. Nobody needs a gazillion dollars, and you can't take it with you when you go.
The money aspect can cause your emotions to get in the way of your trade. Greed, and fear, are emotions, most people will never get past.
I love the challenge of trading, as well as being on the front lines; as far as the economy, and world events go; and when the apocalypse arrives, I hope to have a front row seat in the VIP section, so I can enjoy the show.
I love the challenge of trading, as well as being on the front lines; as far as the economy, and world events go; and when the apocalypse arrives, I hope to have a front row seat in the VIP section, so I can enjoy the show.
You gotta learn to embrace the good with that bad, and in the end the money isn't what's really important.
Thanks for reading, and good luck,
AA
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