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Monday, March 20, 2023

Weekly Wrap Up, & Taking A Look At The Week Ahead - covering Tech, Energy, The S&P ($SPX), and Bitcoin

To get you caught up to speed: 

Despite the crazy news cycle; the market has basically been chopping around in a tight range for the past week, and we're not seeing much selling this Monday morning, and I suppose that's because we have a long holiday coming up, and smart traders don't increase their short positions, ahead of a break. 

Weekly Wrap Up - 

March came in like a Bear, as predicted Feb 7th: 

And reiterated in my Bold Call on the $SPX, dated March 1st 

 You've probably heard the term, "March comes in like a Lion, and out like a Lamb". Well in this case, March would come in like a Bear (market), and go out like a Bull (market). 

Will I be correct on the second part of that prediction? Only time will tell, but I have 15 $SPX charts working, and several different possible outcomes, including the one below. 

$SPX - 

1. Bounced off the 3800 level a week ago. 

2. Support looks like 3885

3. res. remains at the 4000 level

You should recognize the pattern as a triple zigzag A-B-(W), A-B-(Y), A-B-(Z) 

Makes sense that the market manipulators would want to squeeze the short sellers into the spring, "sell in May, and go away". 

The Banks

I made mention of the big banks in this week's newsletter, and I think there's still a good chance we could see a powerful snapback rally on some of these Regional Zombie Banks, like this one, I called out on Friday. 

First Republic $FRC 

Looks like we're seeing more weakness in the banking sector this morning, with Credit Suisse being bought out for 80 cents a share, and bond holders being wiped out.  

Analysis: Credit Suisse rescue presents 'buyer beware' moment for bank bondholders reuters 

I think the only thing that delayed this deal was the Bearish Put Options that were engineer to pay on OPEX Friday, and not only in the failing regional banking sector, but also in the Energy sector. 

Watching Energy & Tech  

As I tweeted out on Friday, "this time was different"; instead of seeing Tech beaten down, and energy driven higher, we saw quite the opposite. 

 That chart is a bit of a mess, even after updating it, but it's really to show the inverse correlation between tech and energy.

Reminder - who was bullish energy, and who was bearish, before we saw the most recent cycle? 

Who was also right on Oil?! 

Seeing Oil down another 3% this morning, but I finished taking profits on Friday    


Bitcoin continues to break higher, but there's still a high risk of a sudden bearish reversal. 

Bitcoin - The climax of the broadening top. 

We recently saw a good example of a broadening top reversal in Dry Ships 


Take Care, 



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