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Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Market Update 3/28/23

March came in like a lion, but it didn't go out like a lamb. It's going out, more like an inch worm, or a Caterpillar. 

The broader market is hardly moving, and lacks any sort of momentum, in either direction. 

Seems like we're left waiting for the next shoe to drop. 

In the meantime I continue updating my charts, and folders.  

In yesterday's update I pointed to the breakout above the 200 day moving average, which I predicted, on Friday, and that's exactly what we saw at the open, but that was followed by another gap fade. 

The market may be a tough read right here, but it certainly isn't broken. 

Fear remains high 

I just heard someone on Bloomberg say the market is being thinly traded, on fear, and that's about right. 

You have some investors who don't know if they can trust the regulators, or even Janet Yellen, but the real reason the market is thinly traded, is because window dressing season is over, and traders are looking ahead at the long holiday, which kicks off with a shortened trading week, next week, and continues into the end of Passover, on April 12th. Perhaps they are letting the sell orders pile up, and they're keeping their ammo dry.... 

Whether the plan includes shaking out retail investors, on light volume, as I hypothesized yesterday; many money managers won't return to put money to work, until the 17th, regardless...   

Low volume, and relatively low volatility to continue. It would be great to see a shakeout, but we may only see that in certain sectors. 

The market trades one sector at a time. 

It would be great if the financial networks would point out which sectors are leading, but that's up to you to figure out. I don't have time to chart 15 different sectors, and then predict each one. In fact it would take more than one person to orchestrate all these trades... 

One of these days/ years the market will trade in a straight line again, but until then it's going to be tough sledding. 

I just glanced over to see $SPX futures testing the 4000 level again - in real time.  

$SPX futures - no change from yesterday. Very short term the trend remains down, and appears to be trading in a declining megaphone pattern. Intermediate term the trend - off the Oct lows - remains up.

I think this weakness in futures may be a head-fake. 

$WLSH The Wilshire 5000 is the thing to watch, since foreign money continues to be put to work there. Watch for support at the 200 day moving average, and res. at the 50 day. You may even find the chart pattern on a daily candlestick view, so get to work charting it! 

Good Luck, AA


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