Page menu

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Market Update - Technical Tuesday - Let's Get Technical!

 Happy Technical Tuesday! 

Hopefully the market starts moving again, after taking what is now a 6 day pause? More and more I think the hedge funds are short handed - like every other business seems to be - so it just takes a lot longer to load the algos. If you don't know what that means, just put it on a shelf

For instance: It was just a couple weeks ago that I posed the question, "How Long Can The Market Continue To Trade Sideways", and no sooner than I published that piece, the rug was pulled out....

$FRC - for example - See where the stock traded flat for 12 days, before the run was pulled (below my red support line). That's not a typo. That red line was key support, and the powers that be knew exactly what they were doing, when they took that level out. 

That chart is a perfect example of a take down, and it's kind of cool, that I knew enough not to trust that sideways action, or the constantly hammered $VIX. Instead I told traders to decrease their exposure, and reduce their risk. Did anyone listen? Probably not, but that's typical...

First Republic made a fresh low yesterday - by the way - on news that Jamie Dimon and the racketeers (at JP Morgan), are circling the wagons... and if Credit Suisse was only worth $2b, how much is $FRC worth? 

This is a good example of why I always say, "valuation means nothing", and if you watched any CNBC Fast Money - over the past several days - all they can do is scratch their heads, and shrug their shoulders.

Futures are pointing to a higher open this morning:


Looks like that 4000 level is resistance, at the upper trend line. 

$SPX 15 min. chart - looks like a breakout, although you shouldn't put too much weight in a short term chart like this. 

If you can see chart patterns, then you should already see the one that's going to reveal itself at the open. What pattern?

$SPX - this pattern - an upturned triangle pattern. What does that mean? If you don't know, you obviously have some homework to do. Try a google search.... 

What next? 

$SPX - Anticipate the next move, and update the chart accordingly 

That's what I mean when I talk about staying 1 step ahead of the game. 

You should also know that this target coincides with the 50 day moving average, which is trading at the 4010 level. 

How about that for some technical levels, on a Technical Tuesday! 

Now learn to do this on 12 different sectors, and watch 30 different chart views, at once, and the $VIX, and the rest.... you'll be well on your way to being among the top 5% of traders, who consistently beat the market.   

I think once I achieve critical mass, I should publish a teaching series, and then publish additional yearly updates, because the market we're trading today probably won't be the same market a year from now, or 10 years from now.  

FOMC reports tomorrow, and if they pivot to a pause, you will see the market explode to the upside.

This is also window dressing season, and fund managers must show that they are fully invested, at the end of the quarter. Money moves markets.  


Gold - Seems as though investors have piled into alternative currency trades, over the past few weeks, because they knew what was coming, even before the regional banking crisis unfolded. 

Funny thing is, the $USD is not even down that much. In fact it's trading well above the recent lows.    

Anyhow, I'm seeing a reversal pattern in gold, and added a gold chart to the public charts area.

I also added the $SPX chart view that I revealed in yesterday's market update.  


Looking back at yesterday's update - I included a tweet re: china, and oil - which was in error. 

What I meant to point to was my bold prediction on the $SPX 

Here's the updated 60 min. chart I pointed to on March 1st. 

$SPX 60 min view. - again shows the same res. - how awesome is that! Chart views on different timelines tend to NOT line up as well as this!  

As you can see, I watch a lot of chart views, so many in fact, that you would have a hard time picking on over the other, and this system I've developed does require a little juggling, at times. 

I'm actually hoping I'm right on gold, just so that I can delete half my gold charts! 

But what if the market correction continues? 

What about the overbought tech sector, and what if these charts all break? Well, then I already have that covered, including the downside targets. You just need to stay nimble.... 

Hopefully I eventually find time to explain my system, and document it in a book, but in the meantime, the best advice I can give you is to start practicing by learning everything you can about charting, and then start charting every outcome you can imagine, on every timeline, and every sector, as well.

Of course there's a lot more that goes into my analysis, than basic charts, but without good basic charting technique you won't even have a chance... 

Take Care, 



No comments:

Post a Comment