I had started working on an update yesterday morning, but caught up updating some sector charts, and ran out of time.
China & Energy
China, and Energy weighed heavily on global markets yesterday, and just in time for August Options Expiration, tomorrow (Friday). Funny, how that works. See my prediction for the timing on this sell-off blogged on Monday August 7th.
Of course, I've been anticipating a trade in energy, and I called it out on Twitter around mid morning.
Looks like a little wave iv pause in crude oil to me, but I could be wrong #ElliottWave #Oil pic.twitter.com/UqjYciYx4Y
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 16, 2023
What we saw next was a perfect mid-day reversal, and by the close Oil was seen making new recent lows.
I apparently wasn't the only one who saw this trade coming:
#WTI $76 first Stop. https://t.co/8svXoo9lLq
— Dale Pinkert (@ForexStopHunter) August 12, 2023
This morning we see Oil bouncing out of the hole, from a slightly oversold condition.
China China China
The catalyst for the selling was the continued bad news coming out of China.
1. August 8th
China's car sales fall for 2nd month in July as price war ... reuters.co
China reportedly told state banks to escalate yuan intervention this week forexlive.com
It wasn't until this morning that Bloomberg actually started reporting the China currency intervention story, instead - up to this point - opting to blame yesterday's release of the fed minutes for yesterday's wash out. Hogwash!
Why does Bloomberg wait until this morning to point at China? I suspect it's because once the cat is out of the bag, the mass distraction media is forced to report the truth, for a change. Perhaps if they wasted less time celebrating the latest Trump indictment, they could focus more on the real news, but I doubt it.
Of course, when a real crisis comes you can expect the lame stream media not to report it on Joe Biden's watch, so it's always best to trust the charts.
Speaking of the charts:
$SPY 60 min. view: Looks like we finally saw a decent washout. Res. becomes the 200 ma.
Take care,
AA
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