Page menu

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Big Bearish Reversal Confirmed; Bitcoin, Commodities, $SPX, $Oil, $VIX, Cocoa

As some of the long term followers of this blog probably already know, I chart everything: 

1. Emerging Markets

2. Currencies - including Crypto, Treasuries 

3. Commodities, 

a. Oil, distillates, Natural Gas, 

b. Metals, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Uranium

c. Agriculture (AG), including Wheat, and Corn, and even Cocoa, Sugar, and even Cattle.  

I'll bet you didn't know that the biggest bull market isn't in Oil, it's in Cocoa! 

That is, up until yesterday's big bearish reversal! 

$COCOA - bearish reversal 

I suppose if the lame stream media pointed to the cocoa trade every morning, like they do the Oil rally, there might me more interest in trading Cocoa, but good luck even finding a way to trade it. 

That brings me to my next point. 

What's the best platform for trading commodities?  

TradeStation seems to be one of the biggest ones 

eToro is another... 

If you have any suggestions; message me

I'm currently using TD Ameritrade, but I'm looking to expand my trading into all commodities, and even foreign markets. 

Looking At The Broader Market 

They - whoever they are - continue to buy the SPX futures at the 4500 level, and this could continue into the end of Sept. - window dressing season, especially if the Fed comes out with a dovish statement, and the UAW strike comes to an unexpected resolution.   


Monday's (yesterday's) action looks like a bullish reversal, as the $VIX was sold at the 50 day moving average. It was so obvious I didn't feel the need to tweet it.  

At precisely the point where the $VIX was hammered; both the $SOX, and the $NDX bounced out of the hole, so it looks like Friday's bull trap ended with a bear trap. 

Funny, Carter Worth - of CNBC Fast Money fame - apparently failed to recognize the triple bottom on the $VIX, until over the weekend, so anyone trading his late call was caught in yesterday's bear trap. 

Like I already stated, I still think we're setting up for Sept window dressing, on the back of a dovish fed, and an UAW deal.   


Looks like another pump n dump money raising scheme, just ahead of the Fed announcement. 

In other words; it looks like money managers have returned just in time to drive bitcoin up, in order to raise some cash. This is what hedge funds love to do - pump n dump thinly traded markets.    


Hedge funds also continue to pile into oil, but I suspect they're about to pull the rug on that trade. They're already building massive short positions in Energy stocks.

Of course Bloomberg only reports the bullish oil part of the story. 

We're closing in on the $96 target, I pinpointed over a week ago. I'm only surprised how long it's taken to get here. I think I've never seen Oil move slower! 

 Take care, 



No comments:

Post a Comment