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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Market Update $SPX, #Oil

I was hoping to see the market move more normally, now that summer is over, but it looks like the powers that be, are going to take their sweet time building positions; while they prepare the next bearish news story. Yes, the same people who drive the markets, also own the news.  


Oil continues to run, so Bloomberg only reports the bullish part of the oil story. 

Wall Street Journal used to be a good publication, but this morning we see them fueling the mass  hysteria. 

This is all reminiscent of the recent AI boom story which everyone now seems to agree marked the top in the summer tech rally, so the news is a contrarian indicator, as usual. Headline risk.

Speaking of Bloomberg, I heard one of the talking heads mention the golden cross indicator yesterday.

They're actually spinning a bullish story because the technical traders - behind the scenes - are pointing to technical indicators. 

We've seen this story before.

Going to the charts 

$DBC - commodities - perfect example of what I was just talking about.

OF course you can also find these golden cross indicators on other charts, including the Bloomberg commodity index. 

I'm also watching what looks like a possible topping pattern developing 

Looks more like a bearish ending diagonal triangle this morning

The $96 target is still on the table, but no one chart view is going to give you the entire picture. 

The Broader Market 

$SPX futures now drive the entire market thanks to 0 day expiration options, as I recently blogged about, and intend to alert to in the next newsletter. 

I'm expecting the 4500 level to hold, going into Options Expiration Friday, but then I believe we are going to see a sharp correction, back to support.  

This update has run past the opening bell. Looks like my forecast is correct, after watching the bears  - unsuccessfully -  try to sell the CPI data release this morning.  

Take care, 


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