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Monday, August 12, 2019

Market Update - 8/12/2019 - Looking at the week ahead

 Looking at the week ahead

(and August OPEX)

The market remains volatile after last weeks snap-back rally, and the financial cable news networks continue to push the bearish (Hong Kong) China story. They're careful not to mention, the "workers strike", because I think they don't want to give the radicals in the US the same idea, but I think that's a certainty once the SHTF. You already see them threatening to boycott any business who supports the opposition. "Shut it down", has become a political slogan for the left, and people like Bill Maher are hoping for a rescission. All I can say is, "be careful what you wish for", and sooner or later, we're going to go back and retest the breakout point on the $DOW, back in 2016, just below the 20k level. I'll reveal that chart at a later date.

My outlook for this week, remains bullish, after the over-reaction we saw a couple weeks ago, and I think the only reason we're seeing futures down this morning, is in order to shake out the weak hands.

Getting back to Hong Kong, and the $FXI (China). I called it oversold last week, and it remains over-sold, so I'd be looking for a powerful (wave C) counter trend rally there.  

Maybe that remains pinned, ahead of OPEX. Timing is difficult, and wave B's are difficult to predict. The larger trend remains down, but I think by OCT we'll see this index retesting the previous high around the 44 level. 

Looking at the $SPX:

We saw the $VIX top out at 19.44, and that level becomes my line in the sand. I don't see that fear gauge breaking out, any time soon, but if it does, you'll see another washout, and that level will become the pivot.

$SPX Still trading in a revised bullish channel, on the 1 min view.


If that pattern breaks, then look for a little gap fill at the 2890 level.

$SPX 10 min chart w/ support and resistance levels

The $SOX is a chart I haven't included in my public charts area, but I'd be watching the 50 day moving average, and support just below the 1400 level. If $SOX can't lead then way down, then this is just a little shakeout, like I said....

That's all time I have. Thanks for your support, and gook luck this week.

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