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Thursday, August 1, 2019

Market Update August 1st, 2019 - Time to Regroup

Yesterday the FOMC disappointed those who believed The Fed was about to start a new easing cycle, resulting in a 15 min. taper taper tantrum, that broke the bullish trend on most my short term charts.

Of course you couldn't see this coming on a 5 min chart, and let that be a lesson to you. Unless you're watching the longer term charts, you're not going to see the forest through the trees, and next time will be 10X worse, so I'm planning to add some longer term views to the Public Charts area.  

DOW - bullish trend (seen in blue) breaks

 $SPX bullish channel breaks

 $VIX breaks out above 16.65 and program selling kicks in

Now here's what that looked like on the 5 min $SPX chart

If all you're watching is a 5 min chart, you're lost in the forest, and have no clue where support it.

I was looking for a pullback to support @ 3004, and once that level broke it was all over. I'll be replacing the 5 min chart once it starts working again, but I have a lot of charting to do, and I suspect it's going to take a day or 2 to build a base. 13.50 remains support on the $VIX, and I'm expecting a retest of support at the 2965 level.

This is the revised 60 min $SPX chart, and I've moved this into the #1 position in my Public Charts area, until volatility returns to normal, and we can establish an uptrend. What I'm seeing is a broadening range, and whether or not that patter plays out as expected, I believe we're going to see a powerful snap-back rally off this support level.    

 Not all the charts are broken: for example the $RUT only pulled back to support.

The bullish trend on the NASDAQ remains intact, but it could be a week, or more before it tests the bottom of the channel. I'll be adding this chart to the mix btw

In the last update I pointed out that the $SOX was rigged higher, and that's one of the places we saw a lot of damage.

$AMD and other junk, I've been sounding the warning on for weeks!
I also sounded the warning on Oil, and Silver, and miners. There is no inflation, and even if the The Fed had cut to negative rates, you can't fore people to who don't want to borrow, to take out loans. The Fed is dead. They've failed entirely! There is no recovery, only another market bubble. 

That's all the time I got. Like I said, I got a lot of charting to do, and only a couple hours into it.
Good Luck Trades, AA


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