Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Market Update 8/20/2019 - Will It Be Different This Time?

 Will It Be Different This Time?

If you've been trading for any length of time, I'm sure you've heard this phrase; "Is This Time going to be different"? It refers to a well established market trend, that always seems to work like a charm, until is doesn't anymore. 

Getting up to speed: The market managed to gain back all 800 points, it lost on Wed., and if you include the lower low on Thursday, it was more like 1100 points on the DOW, and 100 handles on the $SPX. 

Of course the Industrial Media Complex, doesn't like this rally, and won't report on it accuratly, because they want a recession. Joe Sixpack only hears about 800 point drops and China/ recession fears. Russia collusion , racism, and recession. Let's call that, "the 3 R's of American Journalism".

Last week I predicted that Germany would lead, and once again the charts are spot on, but that doesn't mean we're off to the races, but it is what it is, and I believe it could go higher, into this weekly OPEX. Remember, every market move revolves around the rigged Options market, just as we saw on Friday, but will it be different this time?

I didn't like yesterday's action, because the $VIX was obvious driven down, and the bid on the  S&P  raised above resistance. Tell-tale sign that the manipulators are back at it again. This is typically how it goes, but will it be different this time? 

If you remember last week, I was looking for support @ the 2910 level, when the market crashed 3%. Well, yesterday, that's exactly where we saw the bid raised in pre-market. This is no coincidence, and once again we saw this engineered in AH (after hours/ futures) trading. If you bought the open, then you only ended up around 9 points, but if you rigged futures, it was a nice gain. Funny how that works!  

So far, this rally only looks like a gap fill, from where they pulled the rug out last week, but I think this rally can extend a little further. Even I was telling folks to load up on Calls, last week.

It's not easy to find a pattern on the charts, and the trend remains down on the 60 min charts, while the trend is up on the short term charts, so I would remain cautious!

Here's what that 3 day rally, back to even looks like on a 10 min chart, and I wish I had switched this one out, for the 1 min chart - located in my public charts folder. yesterday.



This a much shorter term view, than the 10 min chart I have in my Public Charts area, but for now this is the trend. I may replace the 1 min chart, with the one above, since it's easier to to see the channel on this view. 

And keep in mind that once this rally rolls over, we're probably going to fill that gap left behind on the $VIX. Maybe that doesn't happen until next week, given that the bulls are likely going to get paid on this weekly OPEX. Could be different this time, but probably won't. 

$OIL worries me. We got a  dead cat bounce on Monday, and Energy lead... for a change, but there's a good possibility of another big washout, and I can't tell you if that happens in 5 min., or 5 days. See the $USO chart located in my Public Charts area.    

Speaking of Energy, look at Canadian Solar $CSIQ bumping up against major resistance!





$BIDU up 10% - had to check this chart this morning. Looks like a continuing crash. Other Chinese stocks don't look this bad, and I'm still expecting a massive snap-back rally at time point. Not sure this is it, but I think not.


 $DIS is accused of cooking the books, and I don't doubt it. This news may have been dropped in order to coordinate a pullback.
Looks like another major topping (megaphone) pattern in wave 5.





Gold: Continues to hold up, and that's a red flag, regardless of $VIX manipulation we typically see going into the end of every month.

$VIX is hammered down into the end of every month. Every (monthly) candle on this chart has a bearish tail on it, but will it be different this time? Probably not! 




This is how you know the market is rigged. This goes beyond (monthly) window dressing; and as long as they can keep up with this charade, investors are going to remain invested, and that's the whole point....

I've been kind of preoccupied with getting back into YouTube content creation, and that starts with re-learning the screen capture, and editing software.    

 Seeing a little pullback in real-time, and gotta get after it. 
Good luck this week, 
AA


No comments:

Post a Comment