In yesterday's market update, I was looking for a retest of support, and boy did we get it, and in a big way!
As I said, after the opening bell (in the chart annotations in my public charts area), "Only Fools Rush In", and you can see how the action played out - exactly as I predicted in real time - on the 60 min chart - located in my Public Charts Area - below.
And if you think that chart looks busy, you should've seen it by the end of the day! This is actually the cleaned up version....
Identifying the rally off Wed's low, as a suckers rally, and knowing exactly where the market was going to break again (at the same "3004) level it broke down on Wed) was key to predicting yesterday's market action, but knowing where the $VIX is likely to top out is paramount....
That $VIX 18.50 level means everything! As long as the $VIX continues to fall back from yesterday's high, this rally can continue into the end of the year, but if the $VIX were to continue higher from here, selling will accelerate exponentially! I give that close to a 0% chance, for several reasons I don't have time to get into, this morning, but for starters, insider traders in our gangster government - See how Congress Cashes In On Insider Trading in this article - knew Trumps tweet was coming, and the algorithms have been pre-programed to sell any negative Trump tweets that mention "China tariffs". Now that the bad news is out, the market can only go up. Predicting markets doesn't get any better than this!
Next let's look at yesterday's action on a fresh 1 min chart.
Of course I used a 60 min. chart, so in hindsight, I may not have been as accurate on picking the exact top.... but I think most technicians have no idea how close we came to a major correction yesterday, and if you're still micro-focused on a short term chart when the SHTF, good luck finding the next level of support!
I recognize a bearish snap-back rally when I see it. I cut my teeth trading the market great market collapse of 07 - 08, while many younger traders today, don't know the difference between one rally and the next. Driving the market back to $SPX 3000, and Dow 27k, doesn't repair the broken charts, as you can see below, and that why I left this chart up. It's a good example of the stupidity we see in markets today. $SPX 3000 means nothing. There isn't any support or resistance there.
See that down-turned blue channel line I added to the chart, yesterday? That's how bear markets begin, with a lower channel line, an no doubt some believe we're in a bear market. Doesn't matter to me, one way or the other, because I like the volatility.
I'm neither bullish nor bearish, I'll trade the trend, in either direction.
I think today, we'll probably see the market continue to build a base, and the AI is likely going to get paid on this weekly OPEX. The bears are also gun shy after yesterday's slaughter, and money doesn't get put to work until the first Monday of the month.
Enjoy the Summer while it last, but set a $VIX alert above that 18.50 level, just in case....
Re: Twitter: I never could get a live person to help me restore access to my twitter, and this is typical. I could create another account, but, I don't miss Twitter, and I'm not going back. It's a dying platform. I spent several years promoting myself there, and have little to show for it, and that kind of (negative) social media is bad for my mental heath. I've noticed I'm more active, and my mood is 100% better, after only a couple weeks!
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