Page menu

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Market Update August, 15th, 2019 - The August Swoon - Part 1

I usually just blog on the fly, from memory, but today, I had to take notes with my morning coffee.

There's a lot I want to cover this morning, and I needed to remind myself to take a look at my $DAX charts, because the $DAX continues to be a great indicator for global markets! I can tell you the $DAX is testing support as I type, so no worries.

Today's Trade

$SPX - Looking at yesterday's action on a 1 min. chart, we seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern. Those of you who followed me on twitter, over the past few years, have seen this pattern play out before, and I haven't been wrong calling a major bottom in years.

There's a very slight chance that we could see the $VIX spike to 28.50, but I'm looking for it to break back down below 20.75, and keep falling below 20.  If those $VIX targets change, I'll alert to it on the 1 min public chart.

I don't like to publish my $VIX charts, because any financial terrorist, foreign, or domestic, could use this information to take the market down. Yes, I'm serious. We're in a trade war, and the globalist hate Trump, not to mention Wall Street is a den of thieves. 

For those of you who are new to this: We could see a little washout below the down turned triangle, but that's usually followed by a swift reversal - breakout above the pattern.  

So US markets seem to be trading into a bottoming pattern, after yesterday's give back - of the rally of the previous day. That didn't really come as much of a surprise, as I  had alerted to a possible retest of the bottom of the range, on Wed... but I sure didn't expect it to get done in a day! The volatility is ridiculous, considering how light the volume is. Some claim this is computer driven trading, but I think it's easy to hammer markets down on light volume, and big as an 800 point drop on the Dow sounds, it seems pretty orderly. It's not gapping down during the day, more like being walked down, similar to what we saw in Dec.   

$SPX - see the the annotation at the bottom of Wednesday's chart. alerting the bottom of the range

Longer Term 

As well as the 1 min chart is working, it's really important to have your long term charts in order, because otherwise you're not going to know when a long term trend breaks, and that's where you see the big move, 10% and more, sp I'm going to continue to add more long term charts - to the PC area. 

I'm seeing upturned bearish triangle patterns on most of my long term charts, and if that pattern continues, markets won't top out for at least a year, or more, but looking at the $DAX, it could be several more years!

$DAX - 20 year chart  - "Don't fight the trend", as they say in the business.

I'm out of time. This may extend into a Part 2 later in the day, because I didn't get to half of what I wanted to say! I didn't even get a chance to blast the dishonest financial fake news media!

Gotta go

Good luck Traders,

No comments:

Post a Comment