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Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Market Update 8/7/2019 - Will I get the market direction wrong today, because that would be historic!

 It's been a while since I got it wrong, but I'm sure eventually, it will happen, but probably not today, and if you're a hedge fund who's trying to use my analysis as a contrarian indicator, that must be upsetting to you #LOL

We saw futures swing to green overnight, but now I see them down hard, and that's exactly what I expect after yesterday's little rally, but the manipulators must have thought that by driving the $VIX just below 20 (19.95), at the close, that would turn the tide. Now watch what happens when the $VIX breaks back above 20 at the open!

I still don't see the ($SPX) 2800 level breaking, but I do think we need a thorough test of support at that level. There is a slight possibility that the $VIX continues to break out, and that level breaks, but we'll deal with that, when the time comes. Maybe we see a shakeout below 2800, followed by a rebound, but it's up to you to know how to trade a reversal. I'm just a technician.

There is a very good chance this market is going to collapse, so we're going to continue to sell the snap-back rallies accordingly. I think we can see a more tradable rally going into August OPEX, because the stock market casino is all about manipulating Options markets.

As long as the $VIX, and the $VIXY remain elevated, I'm going to play it safe, and not because I'm afraid of what's coming, but because that's just the way it is.    

As usual, I don't have much time this morning, but I want to keep you up to date, and up to the minute, the best I can, and try to teach you something, as we go along. In fact if anyone wants personal guidance, I'll teach you every trick in the book, for a fee. If you can't afford a personal trainer, then maybe you can at least throw me a bone? I'm also willing to work remotely for the right hedge-fund, or angel investor, but that's a tough gig to find. Maybe you know someone who needs an experience market technician ? I need work, so I can make money, to pay the bills, like everybody else.

I'm still getting used to having a public charts folder again, and it's a lot of work to try to keep a handle on several sectors, and commodities like Oil, and Gold. I have well over 1000 charts working, and follow 100's stocks. Not because I trade a basket of stocks, but because the market is made up of individual stocks, and certain ones move the market; Apple for instance.

Those of you who followed me on Twitter know, Apple, is one of the ones I watch, and have probably seen this chart before, and knew about the gap target on Apple, and you can see how that played out on the chart. When I say, "market's are manipulated", I'm not making excuses, I'm stating fact.

$AAPL trading below the 50 day ma. Took 2 months to top out, but only a week, to break the 50 day moving average, and in case you didn't know it, "a stock that's trading below it's 50 day moving average is considered bearish". That's a simple formula, anyone can understand.  

Now take a look at the buying volume from 5 days ago, where it topped out. They say "buying volume precedes price movement", and you can see for yourself, that's a myth (busted!).

Apple was pumped, by the powers that be, and dropped like a hot potato. All they cared about was getting their money back, after last years collapse, and now there's another gap that's been left behind, at the 207 level. Sooner or later, I think that one will fill - once we find a sustainable rally.    

$AAPL is a stock to watch, and not because I think it's going to break out this morning, but because it didn't break out, yet... 

 That's all the time I got, and I may add the 10 min chart below to the public charts area, if that one performs better. For now the 1 minute chart located in my public charts continues to work like a charm.

 Take Care, AA


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