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Friday, August 16, 2019

Market Update 8/16/2018 - Happy Friday OPEX

Happy Friday OPEX 

(options expiration) 

Reversal Confirmed


Got our reversal, as predicted in  yesterday's update, and not only was I right on the call, but the action played out on the 1 min, as well as can be expected. If you were watching yesterday's action, and following along, you might say it was "perfect".  

It wasn't until the final minutes of trading that I could confirm that the $VIX had dropped back into a the safety zone, and this is usually how it goes.

There was still a chance that the $VIX would break out this morning, and the bearish Options trades would pay, but that just wasn't meant to be. This means over-priced Puts, and (sold) Calls, are going to expire worthless. This is why I always say the monthly market action is all about OPEX.

 To review:

1. Predicted a reversal

2. Confirmed the bottoming pattern, and called the bottom in real time. 

3. Confirmed that the $VIX was signalling risk on at the close.

4. Reversal confirmed this morning

a. German $DAX reversal 

b. Dow breaks out above the 200 day

c. $VIX gaps down

This update ran past the opening bell, and I've had my hands full charting the action. 

10:15 CST -

$SPX - 1 min chart from my Public Charts area

Seeing support break below my pink line. Pink line with a circle on it is the stop hunt, so there's actually 2 lines of support on the chart. The blue lines, are a hypothetical bullish channel.Support is the breakout point @ 2863, and a possible gap fill fade. There's a good chance the gap on the $VIX fills as well. 

I think this rally has legs, and we'll see how it plays out next week. Maybe we get a pullback on Monday? On the other hand, $SOX may break out above the 50 day, and lead the NASDAQ higher!

I got charts to update, and other things to get caught up on. It's been been a bust week and TGIF. 

Have a great weekend!  






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