Page menu

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Market Update 10/16/2019 - Investors Really Bullish, Or Just Another Engineered Short Squeeze? PART 1

 Market sentiment indicators are some of the most important things I watch. I'm talking about Put/Call ratios... but even the $VIX tells you where short term sentiment is, and this is why I always watch it like a hawk. If you see the $VIX rocketing skyward, you can bet bad news is coming, and when the $VIX continues to be hammered below key support levels, you know it's a risk on situation. 

Last week, the $VIX was hammered below the 50 week moving average, so it was pretty obvious the risk trade was going to remain on.

 Earlier in the week, Bloomberg was telling investors that, "Put buying had reached extreme levels", and pointing to that, as proof, that investors had become overly bearish), but it's easy to prove that's as much of a lie. Pull up the $BPNYA for yourself, and you'll see sentiment is in the middle of the range. Bullish sentiment peaked, back in April, and it's steadily come down from those levels, but we are a far way from extreme bearish (sentiment) levels. 

Bloomberg was also see reporting that a "Brexit deal could get done - as soon as - by the end of the day yesterday"; That was before the Irish PM, stated that there's more work to do, and that deal may not even get done by the end of the week, but it was enough fake news to cause some more panic buying.  

This is typically what the MSM does, when they (the Powers That Be) want to stick it to the bears; they'll report rumors, bogus numbers, and upgrades, and egg on the bulls. It's beyond obvious to anyone who'd watched it for any length of time.

There's defiantly a battle going on, with half of technical analysts bullish, and half bearish.

I didn't even get to scratch the surface of what's really going on, and I'm out of time.

I'll be adding an indicator to the Legend to the Public Charts, and that's an upturned/ or down-turned trend line, as seen below.

$COMPQ - see the reversals at the colored trend line arrow points. Also note that this still looks like a suckers rally.

Watch the $VIX 14 level, since that becomes the short term pivot, and I'll be charting the open as usual.

GL, AA  

 P.S. I've decided to break this update up into at least 2 parts

No comments:

Post a Comment