Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Market Update 10/30/2019 - $SPX 3500 The Hard Way

I know what you're thinking; "he's turned bullish. This is great!" No, not quite, but there is a way to get to 3500 - the hard way.

$SPX 3500 target - 20 yr chart - I've already added this chart to the Public Charts area - second to last chart. I had to dig deep on this one. The chart is self explanatory, but I've added a few annotations, as well as some critical (future) support levels. Targets tend to overshoot, and $SPX 3500 is a good psychological target - anything with a "5" in it. 2500, 29,999.95 (hint hint),

  

I don't like the idea of retesting the high 2 more times, in the the next 4 years, or even trading the moves within the upturned ending diagonal triangle (in wave 5 of a powerful wave 3), but I suppose it's better than seeing the market collapse next year, which was my previous long term outlook.    

Speaking of bullishness: If you happened to see the Fast Money Halftime Show yesterday? They had some perma-bull on, who was just making outrages predictions... It was just funny as hell to see experienced traders like Dr. J. Najarian, and Joey Terranova, sit there and listen with straight faces ....Poker faces, I'd say. Aayhow...

Short term - trend remains up, after hitting the top of the range yesterday.

$SPX - I like this 15 min chart better than the one in the public charts area, so I'm going to swap out the one that's in there. What looks like a contracting triangle on the other view, looks more like a parallel channel on this one - seen in blue of course. If the trend continues, the next breakout point would be above the black line, and then the 3050 level becomes support, or the stop-hunt. I'm not going to make a prediction going into the Fed, but usually you'll see the $VIX sell off, when uncertainty is removed. IF however, we see the $VIX breakout above the 14.50 level, that would be enough to trigger the risk off trade. Yesterday we saw the $VIX hammed at the 13.50 level, and I'll continue to provide $VIX alerts on the #1 chart.  

I still haven't found the time to finalize the new Legend, for the Public Charts Area. Maybe today... as this market seems to be waiting for Chairman Powell to do another helicopter drop.

Re: The Public Charts Area 


Chart rotation - the switching up of the charts in the Public Charts Area:

1. When a chart is no longer working, or I find I have a better one, I'll replace the chart. See the 15 min chart above.

2. When the short term chart breaks, we'll go to a longer term chart view (30 - 60 - DCS). I usually try to put an alert in the annotations, before removing a chart, so refresh the #1 chart on page 1 often, when volatility is high. This - #1 chart - is where you'll find my real time notifications, until, and unless, I get my Twitter account working again. Twitter customer support is non-existent, so don't hold your breath....

Don't rely on down arrows, or my annotations, for buy/ sell signals:

You're better off studying my chart, and knowing where key support, and res. levels are, and trading them accordingly, than waiting for some kind of alert from me. I don't have time for that, and it's up to you to learn how to trade technical levels. For Instance: I can point to a perfect Fib retracement, and put a down arrow on it, but it's up to you to cover your short, or even go long, when that indicator fails. That just happened last week, on the $GBP chart, and once it broke out past the FIB replacement, it was seen pressing the next level of resistance.

$GBP - Since I just mentioned it, and used it as an example - here's an update on the British Pound - still waiting for that pullback to the 200 day ma. This is what typically happens after a big move. Also see gold trading flat, after a big move, just as I predicted... months ago? Don't be a bad holder, go trade something else.


That brings me to my 3rd point:

3. The Public Charts are switched up according to what's moving. For Example, if the market is trading flat, but biotech, or Oil, or something else is moving, I'll add the chart, and we'll trade that. Why waste your summer waiting for the $RUT to move 15 handles?

$RUT: Speaking of the $RUT it continues to snap-back from an extremely (st) over-sold condition, which I alerted to in the public charts area last month... But for some unknown reason, my RUT chart, stopped updating, and I had to take the chart down. I don't like the $RUT anyhow. I don't trade it. I don't trade a lot of things, I cover - for example FOREX. Maybe some day....

$RUT - Are stocks really trading at all time highs, or getting ready to crash again? This doesn't look like a continuing bull market to me. More like BS. Trade what you see, not what you hear on TV.



Update Canada: I don't trade this either, but I mentioned it last week, and it's since traded in to a sideways pattern. What's wrong with this directionless zombie market?



$GRUB - I'm running out of time, and promised to show you where Gruphub, broke technical support.  This is typically what happens when the bullish trend breaks.
Thank goodness I didn't buying into the apparent down-turned triangle, but I seldom trade individual stocks. I kind of like this one around the 31.50 level. Might be a good stocking=stuffer, if you're willing to wait for a snap-back rally in the spring. It's going to take weeks, months, for options to turn, positive again imho

I missed the opening bell, 5 minutes ago, putting the final touches on this one, so I gotta run!

GL, AA






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