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Friday, October 18, 2019

Market Update - October 18th, 2019 - $TRAN, $SLB, OPEX

I started charting at 4:30 AM, which is my normal routine, and what's required to stay one step ahead or the game, and provide as much information as I can, in a short amount of time I have left, to write an insightful blog.

I'm still working on the Legend to the Public Charts area, and will probably provide a link to this blog, in order to try to help folks make sense of my published charts. I think videos, or a webinar, would be better... but I'm just not set up for that right now.   

No doubt my charts can be confusing, because I am not committed to any certain outcome. Most technicians will make big predictions, based on where they believe the market is going - I used to do this - but that personal bias interferes with your charting, and can even cause you to place your trend lines incorrectly! Overcoming your personal bias isn't easy, but markets go up, and markets go down, despite your beliefs. Of course the bulls have been right for the past 10 years, and they are unlikely to change their view, even in a prolonged bear market.            

When comparing different chart views (15 min. 60 min. DCS, and even monthly/ 20 year charts). I provide a lot of different chart views, in the Public charts area, and often you'll find conflicting patterns. You'll find crash targets, and sideways patterns, but the final outcome is unknown, until you see it. No doubt the targets are valid, and will come in handy, at some future date, but you gotta take one day at a time, and look at the circumstances at particular target, when we get there.  

For instance: this morning (Oct. OPEX) we're still watching the market trend up in a tight range - a rising contracting triangle. 

$SPX 1 min view - I've recently moved away from the 1 - 5 min. chart - to a 15 min view -  yet I did alert (in the annotation) to (2997) support on the 1 min chart, going into yesterday's close, and this morning we see the market bouncing off that level in pre-market. If this short term trend continues to play out, we could see 3015, by the end of the day, but this doesn't conflict with my bearish short term sentiment. It just means, we could see a slightly higher high. This has been a super-weak rally, and I'm not seeing bullish patterns on the longer term views, and on top of that, the $VIX remains totally oversold. 

 For comparison:

$SPX 60 min chart view - As you can see the $SPX is actually trading in a sideways range, and when I hear the bulls continue to talk about this "Bull market", I just shake my head, and laugh.

You won't find the above chart in the Public charts area, but it may end up there, if this one looks better than whatever I have up there. I haven't the Public charts this morning. I probably have over 100 chart views of the major indices, and If I included them all you'd really be confused. 

One more thing about the recent action. Since it's trading into a triangle, that seems to point more to a wave B, than a wave 2, which is important. There's a big difference! Wave 2 would point to a crash in wave 3, while wave b, would only point to a powerful downside correction in wave C. This also lines up with my belief that the bulls want everyone to get bearish ahead of Thanksgiving, so they can squeeze them out again. There's your timeline.  

This week has been terrible trading, except for $TRAN which I called out last week.

$TPOR (3X Transportation Bull) - up 25%

I also got Netflix right, even though I hate Netflix. Looks like the easy money has been made there, yet it did close above the 50 day ma. 

I alerted to $SLB in the Public charts area yesterday afternoon, and they beat, so we could see Energy rally. 

There is a lot more I wanted to get to, including a conspiracy theory being pushed my CNBC, about suspicious Trump related trades. It was pretty interesting actually, but 100's of people have insider information, when it comes to China, and Congress (legally) does insider trading all the time! Everybody does it, probably even Joe Biden, and Nervous Nancy Pelosi!

What a suspicious pattern of Trump trades really reveals - The Week

The Congressional Guide to Insider Trading - Bloomberg


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