Page menu

Friday, October 25, 2019

Market Update 10/25/2019 - Conflicting Chart Patterns, Lousy Amazon Earnings, & Brexit

I made serious mistake in yesterday's blog, when we were comparing the upturned triangle pattern on the Dow, to the one we saw (fail) in 2008. I've since replaced the chart, if you want to go back and check it out.

The short term pattern on $SPX also shows an eerily familiar looking upturned Triangle, and even more-so after yesterday's action.

$SPX - See the upturned triangle pattern  - in blue. 2. Resistance at my red line (futures are pointing at that level as I type). 3 Sideways consolidation - between 3012 - 3000.  

Keep in mind, that's a 1 min chart, and compare that to the 2 year DOW chart I replaced in yesterday's blog!

Yesterday's Trade: 

 $SPX -  We saw big pop at the open, taking out all resistance, except for the same (stop hunt) line, which was sold a day earlier. You'd have to look at this more complicated chart to see it, and there's the case for having more than 1 chart to rely on. I've got like 20 short term views of the $SPX, maybe more.  Support at the lower end of the range on this chart is 2997 - if the $VIX breaks above 14 again, and the 3000 level breaks.

 So trading was pretty easy, in the morning, and the $VIX 14 pivot worked like a charm. I imagine if you had buy and sell orders prepared, you could've used $VIX 14, to swing trade it all day.

Today's Trade: 

I suspect we're going to remain trapped in a range, on this weekly OPEX Friday. Probably hold the 3000 level this time. Why else would the $VIX be hammered down to new recent lows? 

Alternate Trade:

$TSX Canada: For a short term trade, maybe you can find a Canada ETF, or even a leveraged one?
 Looks like a continuing bearish consolidation pattern, but could be a nice trade back to the 16600 level.

Getting back to the larger triangle patterns. 

 $SOXX - I don't rely on long term ETF charts, because they aren't as accurate as an index, but others do, so.... Here you see the $SOXX trading above the upper channel, and the spring is wound tight (in the apex of a triangle pattern. If this was the beginning of a cycle, I could see that being a continuation pattern, but not 11 years into a bull market, with the $VIX trading at dangerously low levels.

 Sure it could breakout, but even if it does, we could see a sharp reversal, and when the price action falls out of the bottom of this type of pattern, all hell will break loose. Also note the declining volume. This isn't the smart money buying up here!

 I've plenty more scary charts I could reveal.

SPLV - The "low volatility" $SPX  - How about this one? Does this look like an upturned triangle pattern you want to buy into? LOL The bulls are as delusional as the Democratic socialists.

 Speaking of the Dimms. Yesterday Bloomberg reported on the "impeachment hearings". Thing is there are no impeachment hearings, only a fake impeachment inquiry, designed to pacify those who want to  ‘Impeach the motherf#@*%r’ MarketWatch

I usually start off with a political rant, but whether you believe in the false impeachment narrative, or the bull market narrative, and 0% interest bailout infinity, it all ties together, and Old White Men Like Me Need to Shut Up and Step Aside

Back to Today's Trade:

$GBP finds support at my thin blue line, so I wouldn't be waiting around for it break any time soon.  Could test the 200 day ma @ 1.272, but Brexit "uncertainty" is good for now. 

 Here's another view of same DCS chart. It's back-testing the breakout point. Abigail Doolittle - calls herself, "the chartress, - on Bloomberg, calls this chart, "long term very bullish". That's funny, because it's clearly trending down, has been in a bear market for over 10 years! Maybe the fact that she has a very British sounding name, has something to do with here bias?  

 $GBP - 12 yr. Monthy view - "long term bullish"? Thank God I didn't go to college! 



Twitter destroyed as I predicted in August. Maybe they should rethink their idea that discriminating against conservatives, and silencing people, in the name of Political correctness, is their way to prosperity? Just a thought.
$TWTR - Congratulations Short Sellers!  

Amazon disappoints. Breaks support.
Try the 1585 level, if you like chasing over-bought Tech stocks.

Texas Instruments destroyed, after trading into a broadening top pattern. One of my favorites!

 Of course this morning you see the bulls turning to Intel to save their precious Semiconductor rally .

$INTC Intel  - You gotta be kidding me!

 Sorry, I don't have an Ambev chart, or the time to create one 

Have a great weekend,

No comments:

Post a Comment