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Thursday, August 12, 2021

Market Update 8/12/21 - This Is Ridiculous!

You know what's ridiculous? The number of sectors I've covered in the past several blogs, and I'm not even trading half of them. 

Today I made some notes, just to keep track of it all, and that looks something like this:  

Blogged Oil/energy bullish

$GOLD bullish

(miner $BTG)

Tech bullish

Biotech bearish (Eli Lily...)  

$USD bearish  

China pullback? 

I've mostly been stock picking (individual names), and that's a lot of work in itself, and each morning I use a stock scanner, or find a list of stocks through an alternative source, and then typically add another dozen stocks to my watch list. I don't usually like to reveal these picks, because I know I've been targeted by the hedgies in the past, but I have one I can share with you; as another example of how this market is trading differently than the one we were trading years ago.  

The Stock is called Neximmune, and I picked it out a few weeks ago. It's now run at least 20% off the lows, and where did it settle out yesterday? Just above the 20 day moving average. This - 20 day support - has become the norm., rather than the exception. I attribute some of it to program trading, but there are also many retail traders using moving averages. All you have to do is search the term "bottom picking" in YouTube, to find the information (videos). 

Moving averages 

Yesterday I pointed to a certain gold stock which was about to reach the 200 week moving average, and guess where is was bought. on the same day? 

$NEXI (Neximmune) - This is the stock I was just talking about above. It's one, I've been trading, so it's kind of a busy looking chart, but see (for example) the 20 day moving average (in pink). Both Tuesday and Wed., there was a clear breakout above that level, and yesterday's gap above the 20 day ma is a tell.   

What's a real tell is how the $SPX continues to be bought at the 50 day ma, and this has been going on for so long, it's become comical.

$SPX this is the chart from my public charts area. Shows how the 50 day continues to offer support. This is why you need to watch certain levels, and that advice is more valuable than any single trade I could ever recommend to you. For, if you give a man a fish, he eats for a day, but if you teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime. 

And if you're still unconvinced by the power of these moving averages, see the dreaded airline sector being bought at critical support on the chart below! 

$XAL (airlines) - bought at the 50 week moving average, just as it was back in October. Seeing a trend, yet? Of course it's being sold at the 200 week, but the buying at the 50 week, is way more pronounced.  

Getting back to this crazy market action. 

Yesterday, or was it the day before...? I recommended that I was bearish Biotech, but I'm uncertain on that, because only certain biotech funds have made new highs, while others continue to trade at the lower end of the range, and further due diligence is required. If you can short Eli Lily, or the fund I pointed to yesterday, that would probably be a good bet, but not the leveraged bear ETF. 

$LABD - 3X leveraged Biotech bull - sold at resistance. Bearish candlestick analysis. Taking this off the table.  

$GOLD - bounces out of the hole at the $1700 level. Don't have an upside target plotted yet... 

China looks like it may be due for a pullback, as I tweeted out yesterday. Forgot I was even covering China, but sold my long 3X China yesterday. 

Gotta run, GL AA 

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