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Friday, August 20, 2021

Market Update 8/20/21 - Friday OPEX - weekly wrap-up

 It's been a little bit of a hectic week, trying to stay on top of the market, but it beats being bored. 

Yesterday's selloff, or actually the day before.... Wed. we saw stocks dumped, going into the close, and the short term charts break. I had just alerted to the trend on the 15 min chart, still intact, and no doubt short term traders were buying the lower end of the range.   

$SPX - 15 chart - breaks going into Wednesday's close, where you see my red arrow. That's where st technical support broke. 

  Tweeted the updated 15 min chart at the open: 

I didn't really expect the market to bounce back at the open, but once again, the $VIX was hammered back below resistance, and later I realized that the trend on the 60 min chart, was still intact. 

$SPX - 60 min chart - trend remains intact. 

Low volatility $SPX 60 min chart - bullish trend remains intact. 

From there we saw the market rally into the close. 

We also saw the DOW test the 50 day moving average, and of course that was bought, and the Russell 2000 was bought at the 200 day. 

Now if the 60 min charts were to break, and all these moving averages were to be taken out at today's open, I'd be looking for a washout to the 4320 level, which I pointed to earlier in the week, and there's still a possibility of that. What typically happens when charts start breaking, is they continue to break. In other words: First the 5 min. chart breaks, then the 15 min., then the 60 min, and finally the DCS chart. Then the fake news reports that we've entered "bear market territory", and then the market rallies on that bad news. Yesterday it was reported that the Hang Seng has officially entered bear market territory, when technically it is only retesting the lows set last month.  

The truth is China has remained in a bear market, ever since counterfeit President Joe Biden was sworn into office. Investors must have though China Joe was going to go easy on China, because of the Democrats track record of continually selling us out to China, but I digress. 

China is locked into a bear market, and that is evidenced by the 200 day moving average breaking back in July. That's a universally bearish signal. I may like certain certain beat-up Chinese stocks, but not the $HSI, at the moment. It's also being reported that there are fund redemption ongoing in China, and that is indeed bearish.      

$HSI - in a bear marker for the past 6 - 7 months 

2 things to watch: 

The $VIX 25.50 level, and the Russell $VIX (The $RVX) 30 level.    

Oil - watch Brent at the 65.50 level (support seen at my pink line). 

You can also watch the $44 level on the $USO, which seems to be working pretty well, after last year's crash. 

I've barely scratched the surface, but I'm outta time 

Good luck, and have a great weekend! 


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