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Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Market Update 8/24/21 - Looks like another tiny gain for the S&P

 Seeing $SPX futures up another 8 points, so looks like we're back to "tiny gains" as I blogged yesterday. The fake news can report new market highs every week, but what about risk v reward, on an .08% gain? The idea that investors are moving this market based on animal instincts is ridiculous, anyhow. Computers, and free Fed money, and crooked bankers, move markets. 

The $VIX is already oversold, and the fake news is already seen mocking the "gloom and doom" crowd. They're also reporting that some technician from Wells Fargo has raised his target on the $SPX to 4800 (or something like that) which is also a contrarian indicator, so I wouldn't be long here. At least... not until the market finds a direction. 

Watch for the $VIX to bounce out of the hole around 17.50. 

I'm going to add some charts to the public charts area:

1. The $NYSE chart - shows that the broader market is stuck in a sideways (probably an extended wave 4) pattern, just as the Russell 2000 is. Also proves that the $SPX is no longer a reliable indicator. It's being rigged, along with the $VIX. 

2. The NASDAQ DCS (daily candlestick chart) - shows a bullish channel on this 2 year view, which does not line up with the long term (weekly/monthly) charts. You'll also see where the price action continues to test resistance - just below the 15k level. That looks somewhat like a continuation pattern   

NASDAQ long term chart - totally overshot the top of the range months ago. Also see how monthly volume continues to decline. They say volume precedes (price) direction.  

And it's not only the Tech heavy NASDAQ which has overshot the long term trend, but it's consumer goods, and most everything else. 

$DJUSNC (consumer goods) - totally overbought - overshot the top of the channel,10 - 12 months ago. 

Momentum is drying up, and that's a sure sign of a major top, just as a bearish ending diagonal triangle (after a big move) is.....  

I'd kinda like to short the heavily manipulated and rigged FAANG stocks, but it's probably going to take a while to break those. I believe Treasury money is being used to prop up FAANG. This is something I never bothered blogging about during the fake covid crash, but Cramer was seen receiving texts from Mnuchin, while he was on air, and nobody knows more about how to drive stocks than Cramer. Sounds conspiratorial right? LOL 

Click to view link

$BKX (Bank index) While I'm on the topic of markets being rigged, see where the $BKX is being propped up. Just above the 2008 high  

$DJUSFN (financials) - Does this look toppy to you? 

Of course that's a monthly chart, and it can take months for a top to form. Just look at how long it took for the market to crash in 2007. 9 months - 1 year? It's not that Wall Street is dumb, it's just that the powers that be spend a lot of time unloading their positions to retail investors, and building massive short positions, before finally pulling the rug out.  

Most investors are not prepared for a crash, because we haven't seen a real crash since 2009. The longer the market holds up the more complacent investors will become, but don't let that keep you from being vigilant. At the moment I don't have a timeline, and I suspect the market will hold up through the end of the year. The market is measured in quarters, not days. It could be that we will see a little washout ahead of 4th quarter window dressing - that's about 6 weeks away? Good luck.          

Take Care, AA   

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