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Friday, August 6, 2021

Market Update 8/6 - Does the unemployment data matter?

Bad news is good news, and that's been the trend for a very long time. Until you see good news being repeatedly sold, can you confirm that there's been a change in market sentiment, so you can forget about the lousy unemployment numbers affecting the market. 

Fed money printing, and government spending, and market manipulation, will continue rallying the bulls, as it has since 2008.    

I almost deleted yesterday's update, after I found some mistakes, but instead I edited it, and alerted to the changes in my twitter. 

I think I missed the fact that the $EDZ is the 3X emerging markets bear fund, because China, and Emerging markets should always move in the same direction. 2. I can't be bullish on the 3X leveraged emerging market bear, and the 3X china bull, right? 

Looks like I was wrong on that call anyways, and already looking for a new trade. Never waste your time (and money) waiting for a trade, unless you're certain, and after checking some more charts, I find I'm not certain at all!  

Updating my outlook on Emerging markets 

$EDZ the trend continues, even after Mondays China rout. 

What I think happend on Monday, is that fast money clowns shorted the $FXI (China), because this is what fast money does. BUT only a few Chinese stocks/sectors were sold, and the $FXI is made up of mostly large caps. Tuesday, the fast money shorts were taken out behind the woodshed, so speak.  

While we're still focused on the above chart, the channel lines are the most reliable thing on that chart, because moving averages don't work, and patterns are difficult to identify, because the price action on leverage funds tend to overshoot, more often than not. 

Moving on to our next trade, which I also alerted to in yesterday's Twitter
Oil, and energy 

$OIH (oil producers) = Looking for a powerful snap-back rally, to continue into next week. 

$USO  (US Oil fund)'

#NatGas target taken out. I'd kind of like to be short NatGas, and long Oil, although it's probably going to hold up for another month or 2, because reversals rarely occur suddenly.   

$KOLD (ultra short Natural Gas) - if we do see NatGas sell off, I don't see this thing breaking out much above $19

Have a great weekend! 



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