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Monday, August 23, 2021

Market Update 8/23/2021 - taking a look at Post-OPEX Technicals

 Taking a close look at Energy, Gold, China, and more. It could take a few days to get caught up to speed; with many sectors in play.   I haven't really had any time to look at the charts this morning, and just suffered a computer freeze, so I'll be updating the charts on the fly. 

Seems like the market couldn't bounce out of the hole until after Options expiration (Friday), and we're seeing some of that this morning. 

China was up 2% overnight, with no explanation from the same lying fake news, that could only offer negative China news last week, but US markets seems to rally, despite any bad news, and regardless of reality. More on that later. 

The $VIX is the most important chart of all, because unless there's fear in the market, it's not going to sell off. 

$VIX - This morning the $VIX has pulled back to support, so don't be surprised to see another little shakeout today, or tomorrow. Support @ 17.45 (@ the 50 day ma), 17.99 ( at my green line). Res just below 25. Trend is down. 

$EDZ - Seeing the Emerging market bears on again being taken out behind the woodshed - this morning. 

Gold miners took out the target I pointed to a week, or 2 ago, and I suspect a lot of the recent weakness in several sectors had more to do with hedge-funds (or banks like Goldman Sachs) getting paid on their bearish Put options, than anything else.  

($JDST) (Junior miners 3X bear) - looks like a classic reversal.  

Oil - Even saw a little shakeout on $WTI crude last week, but looks like it's already gapped back above support. 

Brent crude: - daily candelstick chart - shows plenty of support, and trading close to the 200 day moving average (key support). 67.75 is resistance. 

The Russell 2000 was bought at the 200 day moving average, and that was probably the best trade of the week, but this morning we see it running into resistance around the 220 level on the $IWM. I would just take profits, and wait for better opportunities. 

The broader market has been retesting the highs - seems like every week - so "new market highs" gets reported quite often, and that probably sounds bullish to the average investor, but the chart doesn't look bullish at all! 
These new highs are tiny moves, and the market seems to be trading into a bearish ending diagonal triangle, as momentum continues to slow. 

 $SPX - continues to retest the top of the range. Not sure how much longer this trend can continue. 

I'd rather look for sector trades, or trade commodities than chase the $SPY, or tech, into an overbought top. 

Tech is still trading according to the 20 day moving average. I know retail traders, are watching this level, but I suspect computers are trading it. Pretty sure that trend can't continue.    

$COMPQ (NASDAQ) Bought at the 50 day moving average, and today trading back above the 20 day moving average. 

The $NDX overshot months ago, and continues to hold up. I've never seen anything like it, so I have to believe the tech sector is being manipulated. Manipulation can't last forever, but it can last for a few months. 

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