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Monday, December 6, 2021

Market Update 12/6 - Weekly wrap-up, and look at the week ahead

Can't say I could've predicted that tech would've sold off on a Friday, during a holiday (Hanukkah), but it is what it is. Profit taking.  

I thought I'd draw up a fresh NASDAQ chart after Friday's pullback to a slightly lower low, and this is this is what I came up with: 

$COMPQ (NASDAQ) - the chart definitely adds weight to my bullish view, going into 2022. 

The QQQ'a actually just tested the 50 day ma, so it could be that the sellers are going by that, rather than the underlying index, and there was much heavier volume on the $QQQ's. 

If this were a normal market, I might hypothesize that the Energy bulls were forced to liquidate tech stocks, in order to cover their margin calls, but we haven't really seen any panic selling. In fact once they were done selling energy, which started on a Black Friday holiday, they sold tech Thursday, and Friday, during Hanukkah, because they knew nobody would want to get short, going into the weekend, but it was also a good opportunity for the bulls to lever their tech positions, by buying the leveraged $FAANG bear $FNGD, which also saw heavy volume. 

We did see the $VIX break out to ridiculous levels, and that kind of freaked me out, but once I started digging around, I found that the level on the $VIX, was not justified. I mean we've only seen tiny market moves, over the past few weeks; nothing that justifies a 35 handle on the $VIX.  

I found several key FAANG stocks to be bottoming out.... 

$FB (FaceBook) for instance - tweeted this alert Friday afternoon 


$VIX ($VVIX) - called the top on the $VIX Friday afternoon as well, and added the chart to the public charts area. 

Wasn't able to upload that chart until after a reboot. That was a little nerve-wracking. 

I usually chart a market reversal using shorter term charts, and even a 5 minute chart will usually trade into a little ending triangle, as selling momentum slows, but this time was different. I didn't feel the need to stress myself out trying to find the absolute bottom, when I could see the $VIX topping out.  

Anyhow, I'm reiterating the "All Clear", and expect to rally into Dec. OPEX, as the $VIX Pulls back to the 26.50 level, before breaking down to fill the gap left behind around the 21 area. Maybe that takes until the end of the year? Money get's put to work on the 1st Monday of the month, and that's today. If it's delayed by a day - because Hanukkah doesn't officially end until this evening - then technical Tues.    

The broader marker should continue to trade into the same broadening pattern we've been watching for months now, and the breakout point on the DOW is 35.1 (again). Support is the 200 day ma. ST resistance is 35,288 (at the 50 day ma).  If you need other targets, I'm available for freelance work. 

Not the best chart view, but good enough.... and I don't really have time to update it 

I have at least 100 hrs hours of charting to do, just in order to get caught up. If you care to reward me for the effort... there's a paypal button in the left side menu. 

Take Care, AA 

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