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Friday, December 17, 2021

Market Update Friday, Dec., OPEX, 12/17/21 - looking at yesterday's plunge, and a look ahead at the next couple weeks

 Today is December Options Expiration, and by the looks of it, I'm going to be right on my call for most options traders to NOT get paid.... 

From my blog dated Friday is Dec. 8th: 

"...the next Friday is "OPEX, and that most Options expire worthless, I think this rally can continue into this Friday, and sell-off into the next"
Normally - this time of year - we'd be getting into unpredictable territory, with OPEX leading into a long holiday, but surprisingly the charts continue to work like a charm! Maybe it's just easier to predict this year, or maybe I'm just getting better at this. 

Yesterday the $SPX and DOW, were both driven to their respective, yet arbitrary, psychological (round number) targets. I call them "arbitrary", because only a below average IQ, market pumper, with no technical nohow, would look at a market as a series of round number targets. This is how Joe Six-pack looks at markets, and of course the lame stream media encourages it! 

Not the sharpest tools in the shed

 If you saw the annotations on the st public chart on Wed, you probably saw my comment that "round number targets are for fools", and that's why those round number targets became stop hunts (always in pink). 

$SPX - stop-out target breaks - below 4700. Not much of a sell-off, but a perfect call, nonetheless!

4700 becomes resistance, and you should already know that. 

What's nice is, I didn't even have to watch the chart, or update it. I updated it in the morning, and then I spent most the day away from my desk.  

All the manipulators would have to do is hammer the $VIX back below 20, and drive the $SPX to resistance at 4705 level, to win today, and that could still happen.   

My computer just froze, and crashed, in the middle of this update, so it looks like I'll be building a new rig this Christmas, and updating to windows 10. 

Oil - I also called the top on Oil yesterday 

Watch for the $USO to pull back to the 40 area, and the 200 day is also support. 

Then we could be looking at a nice Santa Claus rally in Energy.  

$USO - Chart continues to work like a charm, regardless of Bloomberg's false reporting. 

I'm just now checking the st $SOX chart, and amazingly that chart is also still working. That's 3 for 3! 

 One other thing I noticed, but didn't alert to in my twitter, was the $GLD looking like it could be on the verge of a breakout.

$GLD - without haven't to even look at the chart, I can tell you that it was testing the 200 day. More accurately put, it was being sold at the 200 day. Not sure if that's bullish consolidation or actual resistance, but it's definitely something worth watching! 

I feel like I may be missing something, but I'm about out of time. 

The next normal trading day is going to be Jan. 3th, as the first trading day of the year, falls on a Monday, and if I don't see you again until then, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!   


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