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Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Market Update - ahead of another FOMC meeting

 It's been a week since my last update, and the market has move exactly as I predicted. Looks like we're at, or close to a tradable pullback, after last weeks tremendous rally, which I also predicted. 

I think when I did the last update, I hadn't even taken into account today's fed announcement, but also didn't know the debt limit was going to be raised this week.   

U.S. Congress approves boosting debt limit to $31.4 trillion (reuters)

The Fed statement should be a nothing-burger, as they continue to drag their feet, in order to prop up the market up, going into the end of the year. The market is going to get some clarity, and that's going to cause volatility to wane, and that's going to lift equities. And besides that, it's already short covering season, with Dec. OPEX on Friday, and Christmas coming fast!   

I've added a new $VIX chart to the public charts area, with a cycle calendar, so you can see how I expect things to play out, going all the way into 2022.  

Of course I'd like to see the gap left behind on the $VIX @ 27 fill, but I'm afraid that might have to wait until next year. 

We've seen Tech lead the declines - which was a nice change - and the DOW hold up nicely.

$SOX (the tech leader) - is still trending up. This is the only market that matters to the manipulators. 

The Dow is at support - as it has pulled back to the breakout point. 

$NatGas - Not sure I mentioned in the last update, that the bulls were shaken out below the 200 day moving average, but what they probably missed is that NatGas continues to be bought at the 50 week ma. 

I'm thinking pro shorts pulled this stunt, and have already loaded the boat.

$NatGas - resistance at 4.21, and 4.93

China Pulled back, and since the news seems to be more bearish than ever, and that's the best time for short covering, I like that sector. 

Financials also look pretty good here, and especially if we get a surprise .25 rate hike today. 

$JPM  - Bear flag breaks. Finds support, pulls back and builds a base. I like it. 

That's about it for today.

Good luck, and Happy Holidays! 



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