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Monday, March 21, 2022

Market Update 3/21/22 - The Monday Morning Hangover

The Monday Morning Hangover

Kind of saw this coming, after last weeks - rip your face off - rally. 

As I said last week, I suspected this was only a short covering rally in a bear market, and I think maybe China needs to retest the lows.  

$KWEB - rallied like 50% last week, because nobody (including the short sellers) could have anticipated that the final target would fall short. See the green line....?  

That's right, now I'm bearish; now that Jon Najarian and others have collected on their March Call Optoins, it can go back and build a base.  

Window Dressing - in US equities - may continue into the end of this week, so we may not see any big moves to the downside until more money is put to work. 

Commodities could hold up into the Summer driving season, or May at least.   

Public Charts Updated 

Over the weekend I took most the charts down from the public charts area, as I want to leave the hedge funds high and dry. 1. No more $VIX targets. 2. No oil, or NatGas targets. 3. No China

I did leave 1 $SPX chart up - a daily candlestick chart. There it is trading about flat, as every other index craters.  

  The chart changed a little bit at Friday's close, as the $SPX wants to test the 200 day moving average - target - something I also predicted -  but did you know what the Wilshire 5000 is only testing the 50 day, and the same goes for the $SOX, and the QQQ's? Watch the moving averages, as always.    

Watch for a flat close today, as we see a doji reversal candle painted on the chart. From there consolidation (lower), with the chance of a panic Wave E developing.  

$SPX - possible shakeout below the 4000 level - in a declining, broadening, triangle, or wedge pattern 

I think given that China was a short squeeze, as was the rally in Europe, there's a good chance that we're going to see another shakeout - even to a lower recent low - ahead of a May rally. 

After last week, we shouldn't even see the $VIX get back about 29, and if it does, then you're going to see last weeks trade unwind in a hurry!  

Anyhow, for now, I think the easy money has been made. 

I was bullish the last few weeks, and especially going into the beginning of last week, but not I'm bearish. It's just a trade to me, I don't care if there's a recovery, or not. 

Good luck trading this week, 



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