We're obviously not seeing buying accelerate - after Tuesday's gap above the 200 day ma - so I decided to put my bear hat on, and go back to the drawing board. It's not that I'm overly bearish, it's just that the volatility remains super high, and once the $VIX is allowed to run above 20 again, there will be more selling. The $VIX is already oversold, but you seldom see the rug pulled at the beginning of a quarter
The beginning of an extended bear market - which is looking more and more likely - is always choppy, so I came up with the choppiest chart view I could.
DOW - gaps up (rigged) above the 200 day moving average on Q1 window dressing. Now the crooks can take their time loading the algos, and building massive short positions.
From there, we'll see the market rally into May OPEX, and even back to the 34.6 level, by the middle of the summer - in an A-B-C correction.
I don't usually make long term predictions, but now - after 3 months - there's a clear pattern (a (down-turned expanding triangle), a pattern 95% of traders don't even know exists.
I'm not going to offer any targets for the $SPX, but you can chart, if should be easy enough to figure out on your own.
Good luck, AA
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