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Friday, April 28, 2023

Awesome Swing Trading This Week

 I haven't blogged for a few days, because I figure folks grow tired of hearing me declare victory every day, but to get you caught up to speed:

Capital that started flowing of out of US markets, well ahead of the so called "banking crisis", was put to work in France, pumping Louis Friggin' Vuitton, of all things!   

Louis Vuitton Smashes $500 Billion Valuation Mark, Chases Tesla: 5 Points ndtv.com


This is the first time I can remember an entire country being pumped, since they did the same thing in the Nifty, and that continues to be held up years later. Before that it was the Chinese market in 2018, and that was followed by a nice unwind. 

I suspect we still haven't seen the absolute top in the $CAC, but the crash in global equities can't be far away. Maybe another year or 2, at this rate? Just look at how long India continues to hold up.  

It takes time to form a top; a lot more time than it takes to build a base. 

Getting back to this weeks wrap-up: 

Tuesday, we finally saw a decent pull back:

Of course I predicted this on Monday - just before tech earnings kicked off - calling it a "bear trap" - and it sure looks that way, Wed. morning. 

Thurs. confirmed the bear trap, and they even managed to squeeze some retail short sellers in $AMZN, in after hours trading. 

Updated my status yesterday afternoon 

I've already taken some profits on both sides of the trade; after adding to long positions, on Wed., and put on some protection, ahead of yesterday's ridiculous close. 

It doesn't get much easier than that! 

Part of what made this call so darn easy, was that both the Nasdaq, back-tested the 50 day moving average, and that was an obvious buy target, to anyone who was paying attention, as well as the AI  that trades this market. 

The $VIX ran a little further (to the upside) than I predicted last week, but it ran to a revised target I came up with over the weekend. I don't share those targets with anybody. 

Financials/Banks 

Funny most the reporting has surrounded outflows from First Republic, yet in hindsight the financials were driven back to the 50 day moving average target, before they were taken down again. 

In other words it was a technical target, and the outflows from $FRC, are only a distraction... 

As it turns out; investors who were paralyzed by all the negative news, missed out on one of the biggest rallies we've seen in the tech space, for at least a month. 

What next? 

A one day short squeeze in FAANG stocks looks like any other counter-trend rally to me. 

There are just too many things not to like about yesterday's rally, to even mention. 

Vornado $VNO took out my buy target yesterday 

I also like the pullback on $SNAP as I tweeted out several times yesterday, with a chart. Sadly the retail short sellers can't read a chart, and prefer to troll the folks who can... 


I also see a sector I like, and a possible safe hiding place for your 401k. If you're interested in that information, then please remit $99 to my Paypal, and I'll be happy to reveal it to you.  

Take Care, 

AA


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