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Thursday, April 13, 2023

Market Update After Yesterday's CPI Number

 Yesterday we got a little pullback, and it wasn't on the CPI number, but rather on the Fed minutes. 

The billion dollar baby's didn't like talk of another rate hike in May! 

Market's reaction to Fed minutes 4/12/23

Funny, just the other day I was saying there wasn't the possibility of another rate hike until June, but I must have missed the May meeting on the FOMC calendar - May 2-3. Holy cow, that's right around the corner! 

This morning, the market seems to be taking the news a little better.  

The market continues to hold up, above support, and that's going to continue for as long as it continues. 


Earnings are in focus, as I said in Tuesday's update

It could be that yesterday's selling had more to do with that sector rotation I've been talking about, and the need to raise some cash ahead of earnings season. Look, you have to sell something, in order to buy something else. Cash doesn't grow on trees; it's printed, and created out of thin air, and for now the Fed isn't cooperating. 

Intermediate term

 Markets look somewhat toppy to me, but as I told one of my followers yesterday, were probably not going to see volatility start spiking again, until the bears capitulate. 

I said as much in yesterday's update: 

"My best guess is traders return and drive stocks to my upside target, only to pull the rug out. Could be a Monday morning surprise, followed by a technical Tuesday, who knows..?"  

Someone over at Government Sachs predicted that volatility is going to spike, so perhaps that has some traders on edge. 

Some day, Goldman Sachs will be right; sooner or later; volatility always returns. 

Why do all these so called analysts look like sharks? 

Bloomberg Surveillance : BLOOMBERG : January 22, 2021 4:00am-5:00am EST

Nice press photo! lol 

Someone on Twitter asks: 

You think that vix squeeze coming soon?☺️

— SweetCaroline🦍💎🚀 (@Ape_girl_haley) April 12, 2023

PLEASE - read these updates, because I am not here to hold your hand, and I can't handle distractions!  

I even put out this warning in Monday's update:

 "Twitter Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me there. I'm not there to pump your position, or to hold your hand, and opinions - unless based in (sound) technical theory - are not appreciated." 

Short Term  

Not much change 

$SPX continues to trade in a tight range; the same range we've been watching for the past few days

From the public charts area: 

NASDAQ is walked down to support 

I even took some profits, as I stated in a reply to my own tweet (above)  

"Market doesn't want to sell off, yet. Retest the highs #NASDAQ Tech stocks"

Maybe we see more selling in the sector, but that chart is going to have to break, before I start picking bottoms again. I actually already have a lower NASDAQ target, already picked out, but I'm keeping that close to my chest. 

The Dow 

Looks like it tested resistance, and we're seeing that index down in futures markets 

Volume should pick up next week 

As more traders return from vacation on Monday, we should be getting back to normal volume, just in time for April OPEX. 

If you don't know what that means, then watch and learn. 

Markets move according to cyclicality, and the rigged Options markets, and this is all scheduled to play out, according to plan. 

Take care, AA   


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